Sentinel ICBM, 81% over budget, still being restructured

Summary

The LGM-35A Sentinel — the US Air Force's replacement for the Minuteman III ICBM force — remains under restructuring nearly two years after a critical Nunn-McCurdy cost breach. The Pentagon recertified the program but total cost rose 81% to ~$140.9B; the overrun is concentrated not in the missile but in the decision to build new silos and command infrastructure rather than reuse 50-year-old Minuteman launch facilities judged too decrepit. Northrop Grumman is checking off milestones as the Air Force aims to finish restructuring by end-2026, fly a first test launch by 2027 and reach initial capability in the early 2030s. The FY26 budget sought $3.7B; Congress added $2.5B in reconciliation for risk reduction. The land leg's delay lands as the arms-control regime lapses.

By the numbers

• +81% — cost growth, to ~$140.9B total.
• $3.7B + $2.5B — FY26 request plus reconciliation add for risk reduction.
• 2027 — targeted first test launch.
• early 2030s — projected initial operational capability.
• ~2 years — since the cost breach, still being restructured.

Why it matters

Sentinel modernizes one full leg of the US nuclear triad, and its slippage means the aging Minuteman force must serve years longer than planned — just as China and Russia expand. Cost growth this large also squeezes the rest of the defence budget, including the interceptor rebuild.

What to watch

• Whether the restructure actually closes by end-2026.
• The 2027 first test launch as a credibility marker.
• How long Minuteman III must be life-extended to cover the gap.