Europe loses ~400,000 b/d of refining as closures stack up
After Grangemouth, Shell's Wesseling and BP's Gelsenkirchen cut ~3% of European capacity, tightening product markets just as global cracks run hot
Summary
Europe's refining base is shrinking fast. Grangemouth, Scotland's last major refinery, a Petroineos (Ineos/PetroChina) plant, stopped processing crude, and in Germany Shell is closing its 147,000 b/d Wesseling site while BP removes a third of its 257,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen capacity. Together the cuts strip ~400,000 b/d, roughly 3% of European refining, with a phased Mossmorran cracker closure (2026-27) compounding the petrochemical retreat. The timing is stark: global crack spreads are running structurally high, US 3-2-1 margins near records with crude around $95 after the Iran war, and any Russian diesel export ban would tighten products further. Europe is dismantling refining capacity into the strongest margin environment in years, leaning harder on imported fuel.
By the numbers
- ~400,000 b/d, European refining capacity removed (~3% of the total).
- 147,000 b/d, Shell's Wesseling refinery (Germany), closing.
- 257,000 b/d, BP Gelsenkirchen, losing about a third of crude distillation.
- 3, major European shutdowns in the 2025-26 wave (incl. Grangemouth).
- ~$95 / near-record, crude level and US 3-2-1 crack-spread backdrop.
Why it matters
Thinner European refining plus hot crack spreads plus a possible Russian diesel ban points to tighter, pricier diesel and gasoline. Europe grows more import-dependent for fuel even as it loses the plants, and the jobs and energy-security buffer, that once made it self-sufficient.
What to watch
- Whether more European refiners announce closures as margins or carbon costs bite.
- Diesel cracks if Russia bans exports into an already tight market.
- Replacement import flows from the US Gulf, Middle East and India.