Wheat climbs a fourth straight month as cereals defy a stable headline index
The FAO food index held near a three-year high in May; underneath, weather, fuel and fertilizer costs pushed all major grains higher
Summary
The Fao Food Price Index averaged 130.8 points in May 2026, broadly flat month-on-month but 2.9% above a year earlier. Beneath the stable headline, the Cereal Price Index rose 2.6% from April and nearly 5% year-on-year. World Wheat prices climbed for a fourth consecutive month on smaller expected harvests in major exporters, with US winter-wheat conditions described as among the worst in decades; US Hard Red Winter ran ~28% above May 2025. The All Rice Index rose 2.7% on weather concerns and crude-linked costs. Cheaper Russian and Ukrainian supplies are tempering the rally.
Why it matters
Rising cereal quotations raise import bills and bread and rice costs for low-income, grain-dependent populations — compounded by the fuel passthrough from the largest oil supply disruption on record and the weather risk in NOAA declares El Niño; cocoa and tropical crops price in a possible 'super' event.