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China trade and commodities

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Reports that South32's GEMCO manganese mine in Australia, which ships the majority of its 3.2 million wet tonne annual output to China, accelerated its production ramp in early 2026 following Category 5 Cyclone Megan damage repairs in 2024, tightening seaborne supply availability for ex-China buyers. Notes that Australian manganese ore benchmark prices (44% Mn CIF China) declined roughly 18% from 2025 peaks as Chinese steel demand softened, but battery-grade HPMSM premiums over ore held firm at approximately $800-$1,000/t above implied value.

“GEMCO's ramp in 2026 adds seaborne manganese but the ore-to-HPMSM premium holds, as battery demand for manganese expands.”