[Trump's August 2 cancellation of planned Iran strikes, subject to a rapid deal on Hormuz, remains unresolved; the [iran-us-ceasefire-mou|MOU expires August 17.]] A cargo vessel was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on August 4; Iran simultaneously demanded full inbound inspection authority over ships entering the strait under the Oman-mediated reopening plan. Iran's IRGC struck US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain on July 31 and the energy-infrastructure strike plan remains on pause, not cancelled.
[Israeli strikes killed more than two dozen Palestinians in Gaza on August 3-4, even as a Board of Peace envoy met Netanyahu; the post-meeting statement made no mention of Israeli withdrawal, casting doubt on the [hamas-gaza-disarm-0730|Hamas disarmament deal's implementation calendar.]]
Russia fired 30 to 35 ballistic missiles at Kyiv on August 1, killing at least ten. Ukraine hit Engels strategic air base and a Saratov refinery overnight August 2. Drones struck Russia's Gelendjik resort and Crimea on August 3, killing 11; Russia bombed Sumy, killing two children. Ukraine struck the 17th and 18th Wildberries warehouses of the war. A Russian soldier killed one comrade and three civilians in a shooting rampage in Sevastopol on August 4. Two Turkish-owned cargo ships were struck by drones near Novorossiysk on August 3; Turkey called on both Russia and Ukraine for concrete safety measures.
Ethiopian federal forces and Tigray regional forces resumed active fighting on August 3, signalling a breakdown of the 2022 Pretoria agreement. Sudan's SAF conducted drone strikes on Darfur on August 2 in a region where famine is already acute.
Russia struck Kyiv with ballistic missiles and drones overnight August 4-5, killing 17 people and wounding 44; Ukraine's air defences intercepted none of the ballistic missiles, with officials citing a critical shortfall in Patriot-compatible interceptors that has gone unresolved since the August 1 barrage; Ukraine intercepted only 29 of 195 Russian ballistic missiles in July, a 15% rate that the August 5 zero-interception outcome extends. Ukraine's Zelensky arrived in Belgrade on August 8 for his first official visit to Serbia since the 2022 invasion, meeting Vucic to discuss EU accession, energy, and the path to peace; TASS called the visit harmful to Belgrade-Moscow relations, confirming Moscow's reading of the symbolic stakes; the two leaders signed a memorandum of understanding, the first formal bilateral agreement between Ukraine and Serbia since the war began, and pledged to explore a free trade deal. Ukraine launched approximately 400 drones at Russian territory and Crimea overnight August 8, striking oil refineries in Krasnodar Krai and Samara Oblast; Russia's defense ministry claimed to have intercepted 397. Turkey's coast guard began refusing Dardanelles passage to commercial vessels bound for Novorossiysk and Odessa on August 8, a first operational response to repeated drone attacks on Turkish-owned cargo ships; the restriction applies symmetrically to both belligerents, with no official Turkish confirmation.
Yemen's Houthis killed at least 58 Yemeni government troops in coordinated missile and drone strikes on August 6 and wounded 11 civilians in separate attacks on Saudi Arabia, the deadliest Houthi escalation in years; Al Jazeera linked the uptick directly to rising tensions since the US-Iran war began; Tehran Times framed the attack as Yemen "flipping the battlefield," the clearest available Iranian state read of the engagement.
A Venezuelan opposition delegation led by Dinorah Figuera arrived in Venezuela on August 6 with US backing to open talks with the Maduro government on a political transition; Figuera said the first results are expected in December 2026. This is the ninth dialogue attempt since 2016; the eight prior rounds produced no lasting agreement. The context is without precedent: Nicolas Maduro has been held in US custody since January 3, 2026, seized in a US military operation in Caracas, and Delcy Rodríguez governs in his place. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has structured the talks around a three-phase plan for stabilisation, economic recovery, and elections. María Corina Machado and Edmundo González said they were not involved in the negotiation's design but would not obstruct it.
Ukraine struck the Slavneft-Yanos refinery in Yaroslavl on August 5-6, the seventh time this year; a second refinery in Bashkortostan and a Wildberries warehouse in Tver were also hit; Russia's Ministry of Energy legalised Euro-2 gasoline through July 2027 on the same day, a formal admission that the refinery campaign has structurally degraded domestic fuel supply. Russia's crude throughput stands at 3.6 million barrels per day, its lowest since May 2002.
North Korea fired a short-range ballistic missile from Wonsan toward the East Sea on August 6, the 81st anniversary of the Hiroshima atomic bombing and the first DPRK ballistic launch since the late-June 'special mission' warhead test; the launch came days before US-South Korea annual summer joint exercises begin; South Korea's JCS confirmed the trajectory; Japan issued a warning notice.
Semtex, a military-grade plastic explosive not commercially available, was found in a drone placed beside a Ukrainian Antonov An-124 cargo aircraft at Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport overnight August 5; a DHL cargo aircraft struck an unknown object during its climb; investigators are searching for a second suspected flying object; German and NATO investigators are focusing on Russia as the likely actor. German Interior Minister Dobrindt described the incident as 'a new threat' to German security. Counter-drone perimeter systems did not catch the device, exposing a structural gap in secure cargo tarmac protection.
Watch: whether the August 17 MOU deadline produces a signed Iran-US framework; Iran's Hormuz inspection demand and US/Oman response; whether Gaza withdrawal sequencing produces a written implementation schedule; Tigray fighting breadth and African Union re-engagement; whether North Korea fires again during the US-South Korea summer drills, and whether state media names the missile type or warhead designation; whether the Leipzig airport Semtex drone is formally attributed to a Russian-connected actor and how European cargo facilities adjust tarmac security in response; Russia's domestic pump prices and whether the Euro-2 legalisation triggers public backlash; whether Venezuela's December 2026 dialogue deadline produces any of Machado's four conditions (prisoner releases, exile returns, CNE reform, election date).
