commodity pricing

Fastmarkets describes the Q1 2026 cobalt market as 'the tightest physical market we have ever seen', attributing the tightness to three concurrent factors: the DRC government's January 2026 cobalt export quota (restricting cobalt hydroxide exports), a draw-down in cobalt hydroxide stocks held by Chinese processors following two years of pre-positioning, and an increase in NMC811 battery production by Korean cathode makers (LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI) that pushed cobalt demand above Q1 2025 levels. LME at $56,290/t represented a 40-45% premium to the January 2026 open.

“The cobalt physical market in Q1 2026 was 'the tightest ever', driven by DRC export quotas, drawn-down stocks and NMC811 demand.”

Reports the November 2025 MOFCOM suspension of the US-specific export ban on gallium, germanium, and antimony until November 27, 2026, as part of US-China trade talks. Notes the global licensing regime remains unchanged, creating long lead times and unpredictable spot availability; Western buyers describe the truce as operationally meaningless for procurement planning.

“China's trade-truce suspension of the US gallium ban is operationally meaningless: global licensing delays mean reliable Western supply has not returned.”

Documents US ferro-vanadium reaching $51,650 per metric tonne unit in March 2026, driven by simultaneous demand from the VRFB storage sector and the steel microalloying industry, where vanadium is used to strengthen rebar. Notes that Chinese domestic vanadium prices diverged from Western prices by approximately 30%, as China's VRFB expansion absorbed domestic production that previously supplied export markets. Supply from South Africa (VR8) and Brazil (Largo) is ramping slowly.

“US ferro-vanadium reached $51,650/MTU in March 2026 as VRFB storage and steel rebar demand combined with reduced Chinese export availability, creating a 30% China-West price gap.”

Records LME zinc cash settling at $3,608.50 per tonne on June 23, 2026, near the year-to-date high, driven by the combination of the ILZSG deficit data, declining Chinese zinc mine output, and a draw-down in LME warehouse inventories to below 150,000 tonnes. Notes that the China-to-West zinc flow reversal is tightening ex-China concentrate availability for European smelters (Nyrstar, Glencore) which had previously relied on Chinese refined zinc imports to balance domestic shortfalls.

“LME zinc touched $3,608.50/t on June 23, 2026, as the ILZSG deficit, Chinese mine output decline and low LME inventories combined.”