geopolitical-commodities

Analysis connecting China's antimony export-control playbook (ban, then price spike, then selective licensing) to the trajectory being run with rare earths. Notes antimony's role in over 200 types of military munitions (primers, tracer bullets, flame retardants in munitions casings), making it particularly sensitive for Western defence procurement. Southeast Asian producers are filling the gap slowly.

“China ran the antimony export-control playbook to completion, prices spiked 2,600%, and the same strategy is now being applied to rare earths.”