Japan records 671,236 births in 2025, a record low for the tenth consecutive year, as total fertility rate falls to 1.14

Summary

Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare released vital statistics data on February 26, 2026 confirming that 671,236 babies were born to Japanese nationals in 2025, a record low for the tenth consecutive year and the lowest figure since Japan began maintaining birth records in 1899. The total fertility rate stood at 1.14, also a record low, down from 1.20 in 2023. Deaths totalled approximately 1,589,000, producing a natural population decline (deaths minus births) of 918,253, extending Japan's natural Japan Demography decline to 19 consecutive years. Tokyo's TFR was 0.96 for the second year in a row, the only prefecture below 1.0 and the clearest indication of the fertility suppression associated with Japan's largest urban labor market. The highest regional TFR was Okinawa at 1.52, with rural and southern prefectures generally maintaining higher rates than major urban centers. Japan's total population is approximately 124 to 125 million; the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research projects it will fall below 90 million by 2060 under current trends.

The split

The Ishiba government (in office since October 2024) announced an expanded child support package of approximately 5.4 trillion yen annually, citing demographic rescue as the country's top domestic priority. Japanese press coverage was skeptical about the near-term effect, noting that comparable spending under prior administrations had not altered the downward trend. Academic demographers quoted in the Japan Times and Nikkei Asia distinguished between the TFR, which measures fertility per woman, and the absolute birth count, noting that the latter is also being dragged down by the shrinking size of the prime childbearing-age cohort, a double compression that makes short-term reversal arithmetically difficult. South Korean and Chinese government sources followed the Japanese data closely, given that both countries face analogous dynamics. Australian and Canadian immigration agencies tracked the data as a signal of potential skilled worker outflow from Japan.

By the numbers

• 671,236, births in Japan in 2025 (record low; 10th consecutive year; lowest since 1899)
• 1.14, Japan's total fertility rate in 2025 (record low; down from 1.20 in 2023)
• ~1,589,000, deaths in Japan in 2025
• 918,253, natural population decline (deaths minus births) in 2025
• 19, consecutive years of natural population decline
• 0.96, Tokyo's TFR in 2025 (below 1.0 for second year)
• 1.52, Okinawa's TFR (Japan's highest regional figure)
• 2,091,983, births at Japan's 1973 baby boom peak (3x the current rate)
• <90 million, projected population by 2060 (NIPSSR)

Why it matters

Japan is the world's third-largest economy and the most advanced large economy in terms of demographic aging. The tenth consecutive year of record-low births confirms that the structural drivers of Japan Demography fertility decline, including the cost of urban living, a demanding work culture that conflicts with child-rearing, and a persistent gender gap in domestic labor, have not been altered by policy. Japan's experience is observed globally as a preview of what sustained below-replacement fertility produces across an entire economy: a shrinking workforce, rising dependency ratios, intensifying immigration debates (Japan has historically been resistant to mass immigration), and long-run deflation risk. The Tokyo TFR of 0.96 for a second consecutive year is particularly significant because Tokyo accounts for roughly 12 percent of Japan's total population, and its fertility rate shapes national averages disproportionately.

What to watch

• Whether Japan's expanded child support package produces any measurable effect on 2026 birth numbers
• The debate within Japan about immigration as a demographic response, as government officials make increasingly explicit references to the need for foreign labor
• Whether the Tokyo TFR continues to fall below 0.90, which would be a new threshold in global urban demography
• NIPSSR's next long-range population projection update