commodities / geopolitics

Contextualises the 31,200-tonne cobalt quota as the DRC's market intervention for a metal that fell from $80,000/t to below $26,000/t between 2022 and 2025. The quota, if enforced, would structurally tighten global cobalt supply; the TFM strike compounds physical disruption risk. Notes CMOC's copper pivot guidance of 760-820 kt as a strategic rebalancing away from cobalt dependency, given the DRC's willingness to restrict cobalt exports.

“The DRC's 31,200-tonne cobalt quota for CMOC targets price recovery for a metal that fell from $80,000/t to below $26,000/t; the June 1 TFM strike adds physical disruption risk.”