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A June 2026 strike at CMOC's Tenke Fungurume Mine compounded a DRC cobalt quota limiting exports to 27% of 2025 production

The DRC set CMOC's 2026 cobalt export quota at 31,200 tonnes against 117,549 tonnes produced in 2025; a June 1 work stoppage at TFM raises copper output risk as CMOC guides 760-820 kt for the year

المعادن·التجارة· worsening ما الذي تعطّل·من يقرّر ·6 قراءات · ·تحديث rbtfl 26 يونيو 2026

Summary

A work stoppage began at CMOC's Tenke Fungurume Mine (TFM) in the Democratic Republic of Congo on June 1, 2026, involving surface and underground workers, compounding an ongoing DRC government cobalt export quota that limits CMOC's 2026 shipments to 31,200 tonnes against 117,549 tonnes produced in 2025. TFM is located in Lualaba Province and is one of the world's largest cobalt-Copper deposits. The 31,200-tonne quota represents approximately 27% of CMOC's 2025 production rate and is explicitly framed by DRC's Minister of Mines as a price-support mechanism for cobalt that fell from $80,000 per tonne in 2022 to below $26,000 per tonne by 2025. CMOC stated that full-year 2026 copper guidance of 760-820,000 tonnes is unaffected by the stoppage, noting the company has been pivoting strategically toward copper production at TFM and its Kisanfu mine, where the orebody is copper-dominant. The June 1 strike follows earlier disputes between CMOC and the DRC government over royalty payments, local employment obligations, and the Gécamines state equity stake in TFM.

The split

CMOC management and Chinese mining media frame the copper pivot and quota situation as an orderly strategic transition: cobalt is a by-product of copper mining at TFM, and capping cobalt exports while maintaining copper production is operationally feasible. DRC government officials and Gécamines argue the quota is a legitimate sovereign instrument for commodity price management, pointing to the damage done to DRC's royalty base by the 2022-2025 cobalt price collapse. Western buyers of cobalt, including battery manufacturers dependent on cobalt hydroxide from DRC for NMC batteries, frame the quota as a supply-security risk: TFM and Glencore's KCC together produce approximately 60% of global mined cobalt, meaning DRC policy decisions directly determine global supply availability and price direction. The TFM strike adds a labour dimension that neither the Chinese corporate framing nor the DRC government framing adequately addresses: local employment conditions and community benefit-sharing from one of Africa's largest foreign-investment mining projects are recurring grievances in Lualaba Province.

By the numbers

  • 31,200 tonnes, DRC cobalt export quota for CMOC in 2026.
  • 117,549 tonnes, CMOC cobalt production in 2025 (pre-quota baseline).
  • 27%, quota as a share of 2025 production rate.
  • 760-820,000 tonnes, CMOC full-year 2026 copper guidance.
  • June 1, 2026, TFM work stoppage start date.
  • ~60%, DRC's share of global mined cobalt (combined TFM and Glencore KCC).
  • Below $26,000/t, cobalt price trough in 2025 (from $80,000/t in 2022).

Why it matters

The DRC controls approximately 70% of global cobalt production, and the two largest mines, TFM (CMOC) and KCC (Glencore), are simultaneously under active operational and ownership pressure. The cobalt quota, combined with KCC restart uncertainty from the Glencore-Orion CMC deal transition, creates a potential structural tightening of cobalt supply that has not been priced into battery manufacturing cost models. CMOC's copper pivot toward 760-820 kt guidance positions it as a top-five global copper producer, repositioning the company away from volatile cobalt and toward the tighter copper supply environment created by Grasberg's force majeure and zero TC/RCs globally. The TFM strike illustrates the labour governance risk that accompanies Chinese-owned operations in the DRC: local employment disputes are a recurring feature of the Chinese mining footprint in Lualaba Province, and their escalation into extended stoppages carries copper output risk that the company's guidance does not yet reflect.

What to watch

  • TFM strike resolution: whether the June 1 stoppage is resolved within days or extends into weeks, affecting copper as well as cobalt output.
  • Cobalt quota enforcement: whether the DRC Ministry of Mines enforces the 31,200-tonne limit or allows excess production through supplementary licensing as in prior years.
  • Cobalt price response: whether the quota-plus-strike creates a sustained price recovery from sub-$26,000/t levels, and how battery manufacturers respond to cost implications for NMC chemistries.
  • CMOC-Gécamines royalty negotiation: whether the underlying dispute over the equity stake and royalty structure is resolved or escalates into further operational disruptions.