South Korea's total fertility rate rises for two consecutive years in 2024 and 2025, from a record-low 0.72 to 0.80, on a surge in marriages

Summary

South Korea's Statistics Korea confirmed in February 2026 that 254,500 babies were born in 2025, up 6.8% from 238,300 in 2024 and the highest annual total since 2010. The total fertility rate rose to 0.80, up from 0.75 in 2024 and 0.72 in 2023, the last figure still the lowest TFR ever officially recorded by any country. The two consecutive years of increase are the first back-to-back birth gains since 2007-2008. Deaths of approximately 363,400 continue to exceed births, producing ongoing natural population decline. Statistics Korea attributed the rebound to two structural factors: a wave of pandemic-delayed marriages catching up (222,422 marriages in 2024, a 14.9% increase and a record in data going back to 1970), and a relatively larger echo-boomer cohort born in the 1990s entering peak childbearing years.

The split

South Korean government officials and the ruling party framed the two-year rebound as evidence that pro-natal investment was yielding results after two decades of failure, and President Yoon's government accelerated plans for a dedicated Ministry of Population Strategy and Planning with cabinet-level standing. South Korean demographers were more cautious: the two identified drivers (marriage catch-up and cohort bulge) are both transient effects that will expire within a few years, and the underlying structural factors depressing fertility (housing costs, education spending pressure, long working hours, and gender inequality in household labour) remain unchanged. The total amount South Korea has spent on pro-natal policy since 2006, approximately 380 trillion won ($270 billion), is the largest per-capita demographic investment by any government in recorded history, without a sustained reversal until the 2024-2025 uptick.

By the numbers

• 0.72: South Korea's TFR in 2023 (lowest ever officially recorded by any country)
• 0.75: TFR in 2024 (first increase in 9 years)
• 0.80: TFR in 2025 (first time above 0.8 since 2021; first back-to-back gains since 2007-2008)
• 254,500: births in 2025 (up 6.8% YoY; highest since 2010)
• 222,422: marriages in 2024 (up 14.9%; highest rate of increase since records began in 1970)
• ~363,400: deaths in 2025 (natural population decline ~108,900)
• 380 trillion won ($270 billion): total pro-natal spending by South Korea since 2006
• 0.58: Seoul TFR in 2024 (lowest for any major city)

Why it matters

South Korea's South Korea Demography rebound is the most closely watched demographic data point in the world because South Korea's 0.72 TFR had become the benchmark for the maximum compression of fertility in an advanced economy. If the rebound sustains, it would challenge the demographic pessimism that has shaped policy responses in East Asia, Europe, and elsewhere. If it reverts, it confirms that structural fertility decline in post-industrial societies cannot be meaningfully reversed by financial incentives alone, even at the scale of $270 billion over two decades. The answer will become clearer by 2027-2028, when the pandemic catch-up cohort of marriages has worked through the system.

What to watch

• 2026 birth and TFR data (to be released February 2027), and whether the rebound is sustained for a third consecutive year
• Whether the Ministry of Population Strategy and Planning is formally established and funded with structurally significant budgets
• Whether South Korea's marriage rate remains elevated or falls back as the backlog of pandemic-delayed unions clears
• How the TFR trajectory affects South Korean pension system reform and immigration policy debates