Nornickel

現状 · 鉱物

The DRC government reinstated a ban on copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate exports on August 6, sending copper to an all-time price record and compounding a simultaneously reported sulfuric acid supply collapse affecting smelter operations. The DRC holds approximately 70% of global cobalt reserves; CMOC, the world's largest cobalt producer, operates primarily there. The ban follows the 2026 DRC cobalt quota imposed earlier this year and is a reinstatement of an earlier restriction rather than a novel policy. Chinese smelters dependent on DRC concentrate face immediate sourcing disruption; the move escalates a pattern of export nationalism following Indonesia on nickel and Zimbabwe on lithium, reshaping how processing capacity is allocated globally.

The International Energy Agency warned on July 16 that full implementation of China's rare earth export restrictions could disrupt US$6.5 trillion of downstream production outside China, the most comprehensive market-risk assessment yet of Beijing's export-control regime. China's commerce ministry launched a cash-reward programme July 1 for informants reporting illegal rare-earth exports, adding a civilian enforcement layer to an architecture already spanning the Mineral Resources Law (June 15) and a 46-firm defence-procurement ban. MP Materials and USA Rare Earth were blacklisted June 22; MOFCOM Announcement No. 26 took effect July 1. India and Japan signed the UNICORN defence-materials deal July 2, the clearest allied response so far. NdPr metal ran 160% in four months to US$137/kg before correcting; European ex-China rare earth prices are at six times domestic Chinese levels. MP Materials is producing NdFeB magnets at Fort Worth under a US$400m DoD equity stake. Battery metals: lithium nearly doubled in Q1 2026; China suspended graphite export licences until at least November 2026, covering 97% of spherical graphite. Gallium reached US$2,269/kg in the West versus US$246/kg in China. The US Trump administration announced US$3 billion in government investment across domestic and allied critical minerals projects on August 7, explicitly linking the spending to rebuilding weapons stockpiles depleted during the US-Israel war on Iran and reducing dependence on Chinese processing; CNBC framed it as a defense-necessity measure; The National placed it within a broader multipolar realignment as multiple governments diversify away from Chinese supply chains.

Watch: whether CMOC and Glencore comply with the DRC ban or seek exemptions; which specific projects receive the US$3B and in which allied countries; whether the US investment triggers matching G7 minerals commitments; cobalt and copper spot price moves after the DRC ban; whether Chinese smelters invest in DRC-based refining capacity; IEA US$6.5T figure and allied procurement timelines; CRMA permitting pace; US 45X FEOC implementation.

Russia's largest mining company and the world's dominant palladium producer, whose Arctic ore bodies and sanctions exposure make it a structural variable in global critical-mineral supply chains.

詳細ファイル ›

Producers and processors: the fifteen miners and refiners who set the critical minerals supply floor

From Chilean brine fields to Congolese copper pits, fifteen companies mine and refine the lithium, copper and cobalt the energy transition depends on.

·3 論調 ·7月3日

Nickel

Hard-to-substitute transition metal driving EV batteries and stainless steel, with Indonesia controlling 60% of world mine supply and giving Jakarta decisive leverage over global manufacturing costs.

·4 論調 ·7月3日

Palladium

A platinum-group metal supplying roughly 85% of gasoline-catalytic-converter demand globally; Russia's Nornickel controls 40% of world output, making palladium a geopolitically exposed critical mineral.

·4 論調 ·7月3日

Platinum

A platinum-group metal mined overwhelmingly in South Africa and Russia, supplying diesel autocatalysts, industrial processes, and green-hydrogen electrolysers, with global supply in structural deficit since 2023.

·4 論調 ·7月3日

Rhodium

The rarest platinum-group metal and the catalyst that strips NOx from vehicle exhaust; over 80% mined in South Africa's Bushveld Complex.

·4 論調 ·7月3日

EUはムルマンスク港の取引を禁止したがロシア産ニッケルは依然として西側市場に流入；ノリリスク・ニッケルの第1四半期生産は大幅減、中国との銅JV協議を加速

EUの第20次制裁パッケージは輸出経路の一つを閉ざしたが、Global Witnessは抜け穴を確認；2026年第1四半期のパラジウム生産は10-11%減；ノリニッケルは厦門建発と年産200万トンの銅精鉱JVを交渉中

語られていないこと ·6 論調 ·7月8日

ブリーフィングをメールで