Chile lithium

現状 · 鉱物

The DRC government reinstated a ban on copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate exports on August 6, sending copper to an all-time price record and compounding a simultaneously reported sulfuric acid supply collapse affecting smelter operations. The DRC holds approximately 70% of global cobalt reserves; CMOC, the world's largest cobalt producer, operates primarily there. The ban follows the 2026 DRC cobalt quota imposed earlier this year and is a reinstatement of an earlier restriction rather than a novel policy. Chinese smelters dependent on DRC concentrate face immediate sourcing disruption; the move escalates a pattern of export nationalism following Indonesia on nickel and Zimbabwe on lithium, reshaping how processing capacity is allocated globally.

The International Energy Agency warned on July 16 that full implementation of China's rare earth export restrictions could disrupt US$6.5 trillion of downstream production outside China, the most comprehensive market-risk assessment yet of Beijing's export-control regime. China's commerce ministry launched a cash-reward programme July 1 for informants reporting illegal rare-earth exports, adding a civilian enforcement layer to an architecture already spanning the Mineral Resources Law (June 15) and a 46-firm defence-procurement ban. MP Materials and USA Rare Earth were blacklisted June 22; MOFCOM Announcement No. 26 took effect July 1. India and Japan signed the UNICORN defence-materials deal July 2, the clearest allied response so far. NdPr metal ran 160% in four months to US$137/kg before correcting; European ex-China rare earth prices are at six times domestic Chinese levels. MP Materials is producing NdFeB magnets at Fort Worth under a US$400m DoD equity stake. Battery metals: lithium nearly doubled in Q1 2026; China suspended graphite export licences until at least November 2026, covering 97% of spherical graphite. Gallium reached US$2,269/kg in the West versus US$246/kg in China. The US Trump administration announced US$3 billion in government investment across domestic and allied critical minerals projects on August 7, explicitly linking the spending to rebuilding weapons stockpiles depleted during the US-Israel war on Iran and reducing dependence on Chinese processing; CNBC framed it as a defense-necessity measure; The National placed it within a broader multipolar realignment as multiple governments diversify away from Chinese supply chains.

Watch: whether CMOC and Glencore comply with the DRC ban or seek exemptions; which specific projects receive the US$3B and in which allied countries; whether the US investment triggers matching G7 minerals commitments; cobalt and copper spot price moves after the DRC ban; whether Chinese smelters invest in DRC-based refining capacity; IEA US$6.5T figure and allied procurement timelines; CRMA permitting pace; US 45X FEOC implementation.

Chile holds the world's largest lithium reserves in the Atacama Desert; its 2023 state-majority nationalization model, pairing Codelco with SQM, defines the global critical-minerals sovereignty debate.

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Resource nationalism: five producing states using export controls to capture battery-metal value

As battery-metal demand accelerates, Indonesia, the DRC, Guinea, Chile and Zimbabwe are using export quotas, bans and permit revocations to keep more mineral value at home.

·4 論調 ·7月3日

SQM (Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile)

Chile's dominant lithium brine producer and the world's second-largest, SQM operates the Salar de Atacama under a 2023 state JV transferring control to Codelco by 2031.

·4 論調 ·7月3日

リチウム価格が倍増しSQMの第1四半期売上高が70%増。天斉が持分を売却し、コデルコ合弁はチリ国家に5億3000万ドルを分配した

2026年第1四半期のリチウム売上高は前年比69.8%増の17億6000万ドルとなりコンセンサスを上回った。平均実現価格は2025年第4四半期の1キログラム10ドルから18ドルに回復。天斉が2月に1.25%を売却する一方、SQMは2026年の数量ガイダンスを15%超の成長に引き上げた

誰の金か ·9 論調 ·7月9日

チリ最高裁がSQM・Codelcoのリチウム合弁を承認、2年間の法的不確実性に終止符

1月26日の判決がチリの国有化モデルに対する最後の法的異議を排除。Codelcoが過半数プラス1株を保有し、SQMがアタカマ塩湖（Salar de Atacama）を操業する2026-2030年の統合フェーズが始まる

誰が決めるのか ·5 論調 ·7月7日

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