WMO raises El Niño intensity forecast to record-breaking level with 80-90% probability through November 2026

Summary

The World Meteorological Organization updated its El Nino outlook in early July 2026, raising the probability of El Nino conditions persisting through at least November to 80-90% and describing multi-model ensemble sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, a trajectory not recorded in 155 years of modern instrumental data. This would make the 2026 event the strongest El Nino since records began, surpassing the 1997-98 event (which itself caused an estimated US$45 billion in damages and 2,100 deaths globally). June 2026 global ocean temperatures already broke all prior June records: the Copernicus Marine Service confirmed the June 21 global average sea-surface temperature reached 21.0°C, eclipsing the 2024 June record. More than 46 million people in the United States faced extreme heat alerts by early July, with New York City approaching record high temperatures set in 1966.

The split

WMO and Copernicus frame the trajectory with scientific precision, careful to distinguish between what is forecast (80-90% El Nino persistence probability) and what has been observed (record June ocean temperatures). Smaller island developing states, coastal West African and Southeast Asian fishing communities, and Central American agriculture-dependent governments are already mobilising emergency planning based on the forecast, having lived through the 2015-16 and 2023-24 El Nino impacts on rainfall, fishery stocks, and crop yields. Oil and commodity markets, where El Nino's impact on LNG demand, palm oil, and grains is a direct pricing variable, are incorporating the WMO update into Q4 2026 contract pricing; vegetable oil futures already reflected El Nino risk in the FAO's June price data, which showed a 3.8% rise in the oils sub-index.

By the numbers

• 80-90%, WMO probability of El Nino persisting through November 2026
• 2°C+, multi-model ensemble sea-surface temperature anomaly in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
• 21.0°C, global average sea-surface temperature on June 21, 2026 (new all-time June record)
• 155, years of modern instrumental records being compared against the current trajectory
• 1997-98, the previous strongest El Nino event in the modern record, which caused an estimated US$45 billion in global damages
• 46 million+, people under extreme heat alerts in the United States as of early July

Why it matters

A record-intensity El Nino affects nearly every food, water, and energy system on the planet through changed precipitation, temperature, and ocean circulation patterns. For agriculture, the direct risks include reduced monsoon rainfall in South Asia and West Africa, drought in Southern Africa, and reduced palm oil and rice output in Southeast Asia. For energy, warmer ocean temperatures reduce hydropower output in tropical regions and alter LNG demand patterns. For fisheries, the collapse of cold-water upwelling off Peru and Chile eliminates anchovy stocks, with cascading effects on global fishmeal and animal-feed markets. The 2026 event has a materially higher baseline temperature to build on than 1997-98 did, meaning the combined El Nino-plus-underlying-warming impact could exceed all prior precedents.

What to watch

• NOAA's Nino-3.4 index readings over August-September, which will confirm whether the event peaks at 1997-98 scale or exceeds it.
• South Asian monsoon performance through August: a below-normal monsoon in India and Bangladesh would signal one of the most consequential El Nino impacts materialising.
• WFP emergency pre-positioning: whether the humanitarian system front-loads food reserves in Southern Africa and Central America ahead of the Oct-Dec peak El Nino impact season.
• Pacific Island emergency declarations and cyclone season projections for November 2026 to March 2027.