Papua New Guinea targets Papua LNG final investment decision in 2026 as TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and Santos prepare a US$14bn project, while Cyclone Maila kills 25+

Summary

Papua New Guinea's largest prospective energy project, Papua LNG, is targeting a final investment decision (FID) from joint-venture partners TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and Santos in 2026, with the landowner Development Forum, the mandatory benefit-sharing negotiation required under PNG law, scheduled to open in late June or early July 2026. The project covers the Elk/Antelope gas fields in Gulf Province and is valued at approximately US$14 billion, targeting 5.6 million tonnes per annum of LNG, which would significantly expand PNG's LNG export capacity beyond the existing ExxonMobil-operated PNG LNG project. Prime Minister James Marape publicly urged the three JV partners to resolve internal disagreements and present a unified position to the state, noting FID cannot proceed without a completed landowner agreement. In April 2026, PNG suffered Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, the first named cyclone issued by PNG's own warning centre since 2007, which killed at least 25 people across Bougainville, East New Britain, and Milne Bay Province through landslides and storm surge. Australia committed A$1 million and New Zealand NZ$3 million in initial humanitarian relief, but follow-up reporting in July found many affected communities had received little or no assistance. In May 2026, Marape visited Guangzhou seeking expanded Chinese investment in the Ramu Nickel Mine expansion and the Frieda River gold-copper project.

The split

Marape's government frames the Papua LNG FID as the centrepiece of its "Take Back PNG" economic nationalism agenda, which insists on higher state equity participation and stronger local content requirements than PNG received from the original PNG LNG project; the Marape position is that PNG must capture more of the fiscal and employment value from its resources rather than simply granting exploration and production licences. The JV partners and international investors argue that PNG's governance environment, land tenure uncertainty, and the landowner negotiation process create project risk that justifies conservative fiscal terms. Civil society groups representing landowner communities in Gulf Province have consistently raised concerns about resettlement, environmental impact on the Purari River system, and whether previous royalty payments from PNG LNG actually reached affected communities.

By the numbers

• US$14bn, the approximate capital cost of the Papua LNG project
• 5.6 mtpa, the target LNG export capacity
• June-July 2026, the scheduled landowner Development Forum
• April 2026, Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila landfall
• 25+, deaths from Cyclone Maila in Bougainville, East New Britain and Milne Bay
• A$1 million, Australia's initial cyclone relief
• NZ$3 million, New Zealand's initial cyclone relief

Why it matters

Papua New Guinea holds significant LNG, gold, copper, and nickel resources and is a key Pacific partner for Australia and the US, which compete with China for economic and strategic influence across Melanesia. The Papua LNG FID, if taken, would be the largest private investment in PNG's history and would lock in export volumes for 20-25 years. The Cyclone Maila response failure illustrates PNG's persistent capacity gap between resource wealth and basic disaster preparedness, a gap that contributes to public scepticism about resource project benefits. Marape's balancing act between Chinese mining investment and Western LNG partnerships reflects PNG's broader Pacific positioning in an era of intensified great-power competition.

What to watch

• Whether the Papua LNG Development Forum produces a landowner agreement in June-July 2026, and whether the JV partners take FID in 2026 or defer.
• Marape's Guangzhou investment outcomes: whether Ramu Nickel expansion and Frieda River proceed, and under what social and environmental terms.
• Cyclone Maila recovery: whether the Australian and New Zealand relief commitments reach affected communities and whether PNG's disaster response capacity improves.
• US and Australian engagement with PNG on strategic infrastructure as an alternative to Chinese investment terms.