China suspended its graphite export licences until November 2026, then the US ITC ruled Chinese anode imports undercut American producers

Summary

China suspended the issuance of new graphite export licences from November 1, 2025, creating a de facto freeze on anode-material shipments that sources described as likely to extend to at least November 2026. No new licences were approved after October 31, 2025; Chinese companies reported receiving no response to applications. Ex-China spherical graphite prices rose 60-90% from October 2025 levels as Japanese and Korean battery manufacturers drew down inventory and activated emergency procurement from Mozambique and Tanzania. China controls 65% of globally mined Graphite and 97% of spherical graphite, the purified anode-grade product used in every mainstream lithium-ion battery. In March 2026 the US International Trade Commission issued a preliminary finding of injury in antidumping and countervailing duty investigations into Chinese natural graphite imports, opening the path to US duties on the residual Chinese anode-material supply still reaching American manufacturers.

The split

Chinese government and industry framing presents graphite export licensing as legitimate resource-management policy consistent with WTO rules, noting that China introduced graphite export controls in October 2023 and the 2025 suspension is an administrative tightening of existing policy. Battery manufacturers in Japan, South Korea and Europe read the suspension as a strategic escalation, timed to coincide with the broader export-control campaign covering rare earths, gallium and germanium, designed to slow Western battery supply-chain independence. US domestic graphite producers (Graphite One, Alabama Graphite, Nouveau Monde) welcomed the ITC injury finding as enabling duties that would level the field against Chinese subsidised product, but critics note US domestic graphite production is negligible and duties primarily drive up input costs for US battery manufacturers in the near term. African graphite producers in Mozambique and Tanzania gained as emergency alternative sourcing but lack the processing infrastructure to convert run-of-mine flake to battery-grade spherical graphite at scale.

By the numbers

• 65%, China's share of global mined graphite production.
• 97%, China's share of spherical graphite (anode-grade) production.
• November 1, 2025, effective date of the Chinese graphite export licence suspension.
• 60-90%, estimated increase in ex-China spherical graphite spot prices from October 2025 to January 2026.
• March 2026, US ITC preliminary injury finding in antidumping/CVD case against Chinese natural graphite imports.
• ~$400/t, approximate Chinese domestic flake graphite price (stable, reflecting domestic supply/demand).
• $900-$1,100/t, ex-China spherical graphite premium range in January-February 2026.

Why it matters

Graphite is the anode material in every commercially deployed lithium-ion battery, and no viable commercial substitute exists at battery scale. Chinese control of 97% of spherical graphite production makes this the single deepest supply-chain chokepoint in the battery materials stack, more concentrated than even cobalt or lithium. The six-month freeze on export licences demonstrated China's ability to disrupt global battery production without triggering a formal trade-law violation, since licensing rather than a ban is the mechanism. The ITC injury finding opens the path to US duties that would make Chinese graphite imports more expensive, potentially accelerating development of ex-China spherical graphite processing in Mozambique, Tanzania and North America, but on a 5-10 year timeline. In the interim, battery manufacturers in the US, Japan and Europe face a structural input cost increase with no short-run substitution option.

What to watch

• Whether China restores graphite export licences in November 2026 or extends the suspension further.
• The US Commerce Department final antidumping/CVD duty rate on Chinese graphite imports.
• Progress by Syrah Resources (Mozambique), NextSource Materials (Madagascar) and Nouveau Monde Graphite (Quebec) toward battery-grade spherical graphite output.
• Japanese and Korean battery manufacturers' inventory levels and whether emergency procurement from non-Chinese sources can meet demand.
• Whether the IRA's FEOC (Foreign Entity of Concern) restrictions, which bar Chinese-content materials from IRA-eligible batteries, force US automakers to accelerate non-Chinese graphite sourcing or delay battery production.