Kazakhstan signs €10bn-plus in EU deals, led by a $7.3bn Air Astana Airbus order
Thirty commercial agreements close during Tokayev's Brussels visit; Astana offers 21 of the EU's 34 critical raw materials and the two sides initial a visa facilitation deal
Summary
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen closed his Brussels visit on June 24 with more than 30 commercial deals valued between €10 billion and $12 billion, led by a €7.3 billion agreement for national carrier Air Astana to purchase 50 Airbus A320/A321neo jets. The two sides also initialled a visa facilitation agreement and closed an EU-Kazakhstan aviation services pact that had been under negotiation for more than 20 years, opening Kazakh airspace to all European carriers. Kazakhstan offered to supply 21 of the European Union's 34 listed critical raw materials under the Critical Raw Materials Act, and a joint rare-earth research centre was announced. Tokayev also met with European Council President António Costa.
The split
Euronews and EU press framed the deals as a direct response to supply-chain diversification pressure following China's China blacklists MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, then expands the regime rare-earth export controls. The Astana Times emphasised sovereignty and regional prestige; Kazakhstan describes itself as building a "safe and sustainable transport artery between Europe and Asia," a formulation that pointedly parallels the Middle Corridor Middle Corridor pitch. Chinese outlets noted the deals without commentary. No Beijing outlet connected the visit to the Belt and Road, though Tokayev's government runs parallel BRI commitments, making the EU pivot diplomatically delicate.
By the numbers
- €10-12bn, total value of commercial deals and memoranda
- €7.3bn, Air Astana order for 50 Airbus A320/A321neo aircraft
- 30, commercial deals and memoranda signed at the Brussels business forum
- 21 of 34, EU critical raw material categories Kazakhstan says it can supply
- 20-plus years, duration of EU-Kazakhstan aviation negotiations before this week's closure
Why it matters
The deals deepen Kazakhstan's position astride the Middle Corridor Middle Corridor as an alternative EU-Asia transit route that bypasses both Russia and China for some flows. The critical minerals pledge directly targets EU strategic vulnerabilities under the Critical Raw Materials Act. A Kazakhstan that supplies rare earths, operates under a visa facilitation agreement, and connects to European aviation networks is a harder country for either Moscow or Beijing to pull back into exclusive dependence. The Air Astana order is also the largest Airbus deal in Central Asian history, signalling commercial depth, not just political signalling.
What to watch
- Whether the critical minerals pledge translates into binding extraction and refinery partnership agreements with EU financing, or remains a framework pledge.
- How Beijing responds as Tokayev deepens EU ties while continuing Belt and Road cooperation; the two tracks are currently compatible but would not be if EU investment conditions begin to require non-China refinery partnerships.
- Whether the EU-Kazakhstan aviation pact triggers a reorientation of cargo routes that currently transit Russian airspace.
- Visa facilitation rollout timeline and whether it includes the student and researcher categories that would matter for Central Asia's tech and scientific integration with Europe.