Belt and Road runs hottest ever, $213bn in 2025, tilting to energy, mining and tech
China's overseas corridor programme posts record deal value as it pivots from megaports to energy, critical minerals and 'small but smart' projects
Summary
China's Belt and Road just had its biggest year ever. New 2025 engagement reached
~$213.5bn across roughly 350 deals, up about 75% on 2024, split between ~$128.4bn in
construction and $85.2bn in equity, per Fudan's GFDC
tracker. Energy drove $9.7bn, about 11.9 GW of wind, solar and
waste-to-energy). The mix has shifted. China is moving away from the debt-heavy
megaports of BRI's first decade toward mining, critical minerals, technology and "small but
smart" projects. Africa led first-half construction at ~$30.5bn, the Middle East second.
The contrast with the West is stark: the EU's Global
Gateway and the G7's PGII are both straining for
momentum.43% of it, with record oil and gas ($30bn in the first half alone)
sitting next to record green power (
By the numbers
- ~$213.5bn, new BRI engagement value in 2025 (+~75% YoY), across ~350 deals.
- ~$128.4bn / ~$85.2bn, construction contracts / investment split.
- ~43%, share of 2025 engagement in energy.
- ~$30.5bn, Africa construction engagement, H1 2025 (vs ~$6.1bn H1 2024).
- ~11.9 GW, green-energy capacity tied to 2025 deals.
Why it matters
The record reframes the "BRI is dead" narrative: Beijing has not retreated, it has re-tooled, smaller, greener, mineral- and tech-led, and still vastly outpacing Western counter-corridors in deal flow. It locks resource states into Chinese supply chains as the US and EU struggle to finance alternatives.
What to watch
- The GFDC 2026 H1 report (due mid-2026): whether the record pace holds.
- Whether "small but smart" shifts debt risk onto weaker host states.
- New mineral/port deals in Africa, Central Asia and the Gulf against rival corridors.