DRC Cobalt

What it is

The DRC cobalt complex is the world's largest single concentration of cobalt deposits, located in the Copperbelt across Haut-Katanga and Lualaba provinces in south-eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Cobalt there occurs almost entirely as a byproduct of copper ore, meaning output tracks copper investment decisions by the two dominant industrial groups: Glencore, which operates the Kamoto Copper Company (KCC) and Mutanda mines; and CMOC (China Molybdenum Co.), which operates Tenke Fungurume (TFM) and the Kisanfu deposit. The DRC's cobalt regulator, ARECOMS (Autorité de Régulation et de Contrôle des Marchés des Substances Minérales Stratégiques), was established specifically to govern export volumes and pricing. As of mid-2026, the DRC supplies approximately 70% of global cobalt mine output, a concentration with no credible near-term substitute at scale.

History

Belgian colonial-era Katanga extraction gave way to post-independence nationalisation under Mobutu's Gécamines, which had collapsed by the wars of 1994-2003. Glencore acquired KCC and Mutanda during the reconstruction decade; CMOC acquired TFM from Freeport-McMoRan in 2016 and Kisanfu from Ivanhoe Mines shortly after. A global EV battery boom drove cobalt prices to roughly US$95,000 per tonne in March 2018, prompting battery chemists to reduce cobalt intensity through NMC 811 and iron-phosphate (LFP) cathode formulations. Glencore restarted Mutanda in 2022 and CMOC expanded TFM and Kisanfu through 2023-2024, flooding the market. By early 2025 cobalt had fallen to approximately US$21,000 per tonne, the lowest in real terms since 2016, rendering several operations sub-economic and triggering state intervention from Kinshasa.

Current state

Kinshasa moved to defend its revenues on February 22, 2025, when ARECOMS imposed a total cobalt export suspension. The ban was extended twice before being lifted on October 15, 2025 and replaced by a quota regime effective October 16. Industrial miners may collectively export 87,000 metric tonnes in 2026, allocated pro-rata against historical export volumes, with a further 9,600 tonnes reserved by the DRC state, for a national ceiling of 96,600 tonnes. Identical caps apply for 2027. The quota system drove cobalt prices from roughly US$21,000 per tonne in early 2025 to approximately US$57,320 per tonne by mid-2026. CMOC's TFM produced 117,549 tonnes of cobalt in 2025 but holds a 2026 export allocation of only 31,200 tonnes; Glencore's combined allocation across KCC and Mutanda is 22,800 tonnes. The TFM operation has faced additional disruption from labour actions under the new policy environment.

Relationships

The DRC's cobalt output feeds Chinese refiners, led by Huayou Cobalt, which process hydroxide into battery cathode precursor material; China accounts for the large majority of global refined cobalt output. The Orion CMC deal, a proposed US-backed acquisition of a 40% stake in Glencore's DRC assets, would give Washington indirect influence over KCC and Mutanda. Artisanal and small-scale mining across eastern Katanga operates largely outside the quota structure and supplies a material share of DRC output through informal channels, blunting the price signal the cap is designed to maintain. LFP battery chemistry, which uses no cobalt, captured roughly 40% of new EV deployments globally by 2024, creating a structural demand ceiling that constrains the long-term price trajectory regardless of supply management.

What to watch

Whether ARECOMS enforces quotas against artisanal-sector leakage, which is the primary vulnerability of Kinshasa's price-management strategy. Whether the 96,600-tonne national ceiling is renewed, tightened, or liberalised for the 2028 tranche. The completion status of the Orion CMC deal and its implications for US critical-mineral supply-chain security. Cobalt recycling capacity ramp-up, which the IEA projects could materially offset virgin-mine demand by the early 2030s if gigafactory-scale recycling programs reach commercial viability, compressing the window during which the DRC's dominance translates into durable pricing leverage.