Uzbekistan raises 2026 GDP growth forecast to 8.1% after economy expands 8.5% in H1; president sets 9-10% as target for living-standard improvements

Uzbekistan's Ministry of Economy and Finance raised its 2026 full-year growth forecast from 6.6% to 8.1% on July 22, after the presidential press office reported 8.5% year-on-year GDP expansion in the first half of the year; President Shavkat Mirziyoyev told officials that growth must reach 9-10% annually to meaningfully improve living standards for the country's 40 million people

자금·부채· active 누구의 돈인가·삶은 어떻게 바뀌는가 ·4 시각 ·2026년 7월 21일 08:35Z ·rbtfl 업데이트 2026년 7월 22일

Summary

Uzbekistan's economy expanded 8.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, according to the presidential press office. The Ministry of Economy and Finance raised its full-year 2026 growth forecast from 6.6% to 8.1%, with GDP projected to reach roughly US$180 billion, inflation at 6.5%, and government revenue and spending budgets increased by 14-12% respectively. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev told ministers and regional governors (hokims) on July 22 that growth must reach 9-10% per year to meaningfully improve living standards for the country's 40 million people, and urged officials to deliver tangible results rather than statistical reports.

The split

Coverage comes primarily from Uzbek domestic press (Gazeta.uz) and the regional Times of Central Asia; international financial wire (Reuters via TradingView) covered the H1 GDP figure. There is no independent analyst assessment in the feed; the figures are all drawn from official Uzbek government sources. The president's statement that 8.5% growth is insufficient frames the upgrade as a floor, not a ceiling, which is an unusual political signal from a Central Asian government.

By the numbers

8.5%, H1 2026 GDP growth year-on-year
8.1%, revised full-year 2026 forecast (up from 6.6%)
US$180 billion, projected 2026 GDP
6.5%, projected 2026 inflation
14.3%, increase in consolidated budget revenue forecast
12.5%, increase in consolidated budget expenditure forecast
40 million, Uzbekistan's population
9-10%, the growth rate the president set as the target for "significant" living-standard improvement

Why it matters

At 8.5%, Uzbekistan is growing at a pace comparable to India and Vietnam, and faster than any other economy in the former Soviet Union. The government's own target of 9-10% signals ambition to sustain high-single-digit growth, unusual for a country of 40 million. Central Asia's growth trajectory matters for Chinese Belt and Road investments transiting the region, Russian economic influence, and the Eurasian Economic Union's internal dynamics.

What to watch

Whether the 8.1% full-year forecast is met or exceeded given Q1-H1 momentum
Inflation trajectory: 6.5% projected against 8%+ growth will test the central bank's tools
Foreign direct investment inflows, which have driven much of Uzbekistan's construction and services growth
Whether Mirziyoyev's 9-10% target translates into any policy shift (credit expansion, privatisation, tariff changes)

지역별 시각 · 2

▸ Central Asia English-language regional press

Times of Central Asia · Central Asia · en · 2026년 7월 21일 08:35Z

First verified English-language report on the revised forecast: Uzbekistan raised its 2026 growth projection from 6.6% to 8.1%, attributed to stronger-than-expected performance in 2025 and Q1 2026. Times of Central Asia provides regional context, reflecting the significance of Uzbekistan's growth trajectory for Central Asian economic integration and trade flows.

“Uzbekistan has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast from 6.6% to 8.1%, after stronger-than-expected performance last year and in the first quarter of 2026.”

출처 ↗

▸ Uzbek English-language national press

Gazeta.uz · Uzbekistan · en · 2026년 7월 22일 03:10Z

Gazeta.uz provides the Ministry of Economy and Finance's full figures: GDP forecast upgraded to 8.1%, GDP expected to reach roughly US$180 billion, inflation projected at 6.5%, and consolidated budget revenues and expenditure forecasts raised 14.3% and 12.5% respectively. Coverage from inside Uzbekistan gives the government's own framing of robust economic management.

“Uzbekistan's Ministry of Economy and Finance raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 8.1% from 6.6%. GDP is expected to reach around $180 billion, inflation is projected at 6.5%.”