escalating 백악관, 이란 전쟁 비용 충당 위해 의회에 876억 달러 긴급 추경 요청
펜타곤에 670억 달러, 탄약 보충에 210억 달러 포함; 미국 농가에 111억 달러, 에볼라 대응에 14억 달러 배분
Money Plumbing
Central banks, rates, FX, insurance and the pipes value moves through.
state of play
Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting (June 17) held rates at 3½–3¾% for the fourth consecutive time but pivoted the dot plot: 9 of 18 officials now project at least one 25bp hike before end-2026, with 6 projecting two, a complete reversal from March's cut expectations, as May CPI hit 4.2% (highest since April 2023) and the year-end PCE forecast was revised from 2.7% to 3.6%. Warsh did not submit personal projections and announced three internal task forces to reform Fed communications, operations and balance-sheet management. The Iran energy shock also reached Europe: the ECB raised 25bp in June, its first hike since 2023, lifting its 2026 inflation baseline to 3.0%.
The oil-price normalisation landed hard: Brent fell to $69.42 on June 25 and flipped to contango, removing the energy-inflation pressure that was the primary driver of the Fed hike case. If the 60-day ceasefire holds and Hormuz stays open, the July CPI print should reflect the price fall, weakening the September hike argument before Warsh's first personal dot submission. Saudi Arabia's Q1 2026 budget deficit hit SAR 125.7B ($33.5B), 76% of the full-year target in 90 days, at exactly the moment the kingdom is adding barrels into a falling market.
The most dramatic equity move is in Seoul: SK Hynix overtook Samsung in market cap for the first time in 26 years (+347.7% YTD) on HBM3E AI-chip demand. Watch Warsh's September dot, whether July CPI confirms Hormuz disinflation, and the Fed task-force recommendations on QT pace.
tracking
Central banks
Fed4 escalating백악관, 이란 전쟁 비용 충당 위해 의회에 876억 달러 긴급 추경 요청 ECB1 activeECB raises rates on the Iran-driven energy shock, first hike since 2023 BoJ — quiet PBoC1 worseningXi holds the line: no big stimulus as China fights deflation and the Iran shock BoE — quiet RBI1 activeIndia's FY26 GDP prints at 7.7%, Modi's headline, the statisticians' puzzle SNB — quiet BoC — quiet BCB (Brazil) — quiet CBRT (Turkey) — quiet
Currencies & FX
Sovereign yields & bonds
Insurance & reinsurance
Payment rails & CBDCs
Banking stress
latest
worsening 금·은·비트코인, 화폐 가치 절하 트레이드 청산에 동반 급락
매파적인 워시 연준 의장이 2025년 헤지 테제를 뒤집으며 귀금속과 암호화폐 동반 하락
contested-result WTI, 퍼미안 분지 상승하는 손익분기점을 스치는 68~85달러 구간에 안착
댈러스 연준 E&P 경영진들, 연말 WTI를 약 74달러로 전망; 신규 시추 손익분기점 약 67달러에 근접해 마진이 얇아져
The Dubai M1–M3 spread collapses from ~$37 to ~$8/bbl as the war premium fades, but Aramco's lagging formula left July differentials high enough to push China's Saudi intake toward ~600,000 bpd
An oil-price shock, a corruption scandal in the free-meals programme and an unnerving inner circle drive a crisis of confidence in Jakarta
January's automatic mechanism keeps the cap 15% under a trailing Urals average; with the grade already below $40 at points, the cap now chases the market down rather than setting it
EIA sees crude slipping from a ~13.5m bpd record toward ~13.3m as Permian growth stalls; Baker Hughes oil rigs near 442, the fewest in years, with Permian breakevens up to ~$67
기준 원유가 70달러 아래로 내려가며 해협 봉쇄 이전 이후 처음으로 선물 곡선 구조 반전
The flagship of Vision 2030 cuts its population target to 100,000 and faces a bigger bill to cancel contracts than to build, as Riyadh resets its megaproject
The CBE keeps rates on hold a second straight meeting and lifts its 2026 inflation forecast to 16-17% from 11%, blaming the regional conflict and an energy shock
2026 회계연도 3분기, AI 메모리 주도 기록적 매출; 데이터센터 매출 약 150% 성장; 연간 HBM 생산 캐파 이미 완판
Europol, Microsoft and partners take 326 servers and 142 domains, freezing €41m in crypto
pending-decision Merz demands 'all or nothing' on a 33-point pension overhaul
A commission hands Germany a capital pillar and life-expectancy retirement ages; the SPD and unions revolt
After two years of fragmentation, the top 10 crews drive 71% of victims; a Qilin-defector brand scales faster than any on record
Sheikh Tahnoon chairs a Q1 review of ADIA, Mubadala, L'Imad and ADNOC as the emirate steers wartime capital and builds a 'fourth pillar' fund
Sterling and gilts move only modestly on Starmer's exit, the real question is the spending rules
HBM dominance drives SK Hynix past Samsung Electronics on June 22; a $29-33B Nasdaq ADR and a 300T won Honam chip cluster follow within 48 hours
Leaders agree the 2028–2034 MFF shape, roll Russia sanctions for 12 months, and start Ukraine accession talks
pending-decision Warsh's first Fed meeting: rates on hold, hike back on the table
New chair Kevin Warsh holds at 3.5–3.75% but 9 of 18 officials project at least one hike by year-end as Iran-war energy inflation pushes CPI to 4.2%
contested-result Merz calls the EU's next seven-year budget 'unaffordable'
After the June European Council, Berlin rejects the MFF proposal and floats Ukraine 'associate membership'
pending-decision With Hormuz reopening, OPEC+ moves to make its paper quotas real
The eight unwinders set a 5 July decision for August output as the ceasefire restores deliverability; Brent flipped to contango at $69 on June 25, signalling the war premium is gone
easing Brent slides under $74 as Hormuz tankers return, and the EIA's $105 wartime call is overtaken
The benchmark hits its lowest since February as shipping recovers; the 9 June STEO had Brent averaging $105 in June–July on a closed strait, a forecast the 17 June ceasefire upended in days
Klingbeil defends ~€196bn in fresh debt as defence spending climbs toward €180bn by 2030
Trump insists 'no $300 billion payment to Iran by the US'; Vance says Arab states and investors will fund it, and no country has confirmed a cent as Iran's own bank warns of a 12-year rebuild
Treasury names front companies relabelling Iranian LPG as Omani to move millions of barrels to South and East Asia
Insiders blame erratic, poorly communicated policy and an opaque advisory court; a Tony Robbins session at the palace becomes the symbol of the unease
UK's 16x shell-output expansion runs months behind; capacity target doubled after a mid-2025 rethink
The deposit rate goes to 2.25% as war-driven oil prices push 2026 inflation projections to 3.0% amid stalling growth
Berlin orders 23 Bergepanzer 3 A2 armoured recovery vehicles, ~€360m, replacing tow tanks handed to Kyiv
The self-styled Beijing critic extends the active yuan swap tranche for 12 months as Washington presses Buenos Aires to cut financial ties
Seoul bilateral yields HBM4E samples and LP40 foundry talks; Tesla A16 to be built at Taylor, Texas; Samsung pins HBM5 comeback on an in-house 2nm base die
Iconiq, GIC and Ontario Teachers lead the spend-management platform's Series F; annualised revenue tops $1bn as companies lean on Ramp to control AI budgets
Saudi guest of honour, a US delegation back after a decade, and a president conceding 'risks of stagnation' while Ukrainian strikes shadow his hometown forum
The first full year on a new 2022-23 base year shows the fastest-growing major economy, even as a rare rise in unemployment and an implausibly low deflator fuel a credibility debate
OFAC names three executives and a Kyrgyz-Russian shell network; Grinex then halts, blaming a 'Western special services' hack
German-funded GEM-T buy plus Dutch, Spanish and Romanian Patriot orders; new Schrobenhausen line ramps
Ceiling raised and program extended to FY2032; PrSM production set to quadruple
A $33.5bn Q1 hole, most of the year's planned shortfall in one quarter, as military outlays jumped and Hormuz throttled oil exports despite high prices
Pyongyang's hackers drove 76% of 2026 crypto-hack value while OFAC and DOJ pursued the fake-employee revenue machine
Trump's pledge to fill the reserve to 700m+ barrels collides with $171m of actual funding and ~$100m of needed cavern repairs, even as ~170m barrels lent out in the war await repayment
Q1 GDP shrank 3.3% from the Iran war, but the ceasefire sends the currency to a 1993 peak and ratings outlooks to stable, even as Smotrich fights a record defence budget
With Urals near $40 the deficit forecast balloons toward ~3% of GDP or worse; one estimate sees a $25–30bn revenue shortfall, the lowest monthly oil tax take since 2022
Washington has taken at least seven Venezuela-linked tankers while issuing fresh general licences for a transition government