AI

On the silicon-and-power side, AI is bifurcating across chips, memory and megawatts. The H200 standoff has both governments making the most advanced AI processors un-shippable. In memory, SK Hynix overtook Samsung in market value for the first time in 26 years as HBM became the critical AI constraint, and all three makers passed HBM4 qualification for Nvidia's Rubin. Capex is the other story, combined hyperscaler spend nears $725bn, Stargate and gas-fired build-outs strain grids and water, from PJM tariff fights to Tucson and Spain. Watch HBM4 allocation, Nvidia's China share, and large-load tariff and water rulings.

On the labs-and-models side, the US export-control directive of June 12 suspended global access to Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, the first-ever application of Export Administration Regulations to a commercial AI model API, barring every foreign national including Anthropic's own non-citizen staff. The capital race is unprecedented: Anthropic's $65bn Series H at a $965bn valuation and OpenAI's confidential S-1 both head for IPOs, while xAI and Mistral raise into the tens of billions. Open-weight releases from DeepSeek and Qwen gain a structural edge in non-US markets as nationality-gatekeeping bifurcates the frontier. Watch the Commerce response to Congress, agentic-coding benchmarks, and whether the export precedent survives courts.