Shipping & Chokepoints

Two simultaneous disruptions are clearing at different speeds. The largest oil supply disruption on record is normalising rapidly: Brent fell to $69.42 on June 25 and flipped to contango, confirming the war premium is gone. More than 20 tankers have crossed post-ceasefire, but 500-plus vessels remain queued. On June 25, the IRGC Navy rejected the Oman-IMO transit corridor, insisting all vessels coordinate via Channel 16 under threat of "enforcement measures," keeping Iran's enforcement hand visible even as the strait reopens. The Lebanon clause preserves Iran's re-closure threat and the 60-day final-deal window has not produced nuclear-access agreement.

The Ras Laffan explosion (June 21; 13 dead, 18 missing) has cut Qatar's LNG throughput to roughly one-fifth of normal; Qatar is responsible for ~21% of global LNG trade and the PM said repairs are "weeks" away. Together, crude and LNG spot markets are tighter post-ceasefire than buyers expected. The Cape-diversion freight premium has partially unwound but the 500-vessel queue cannot re-enter simultaneously, capping the recovery pace. Red Sea Houthi risk persists. Watch the IRGC-Oman Channel 16 standoff, Qatar LNG repair timelines, and whether a Lebanon incident triggers another Hormuz closure.