Chile lithium

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The DRC government reinstated a ban on copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate exports on August 6, sending copper to an all-time price record and compounding a simultaneously reported sulfuric acid supply collapse affecting smelter operations. The DRC holds approximately 70% of global cobalt reserves; CMOC, the world's largest cobalt producer, operates primarily there. The ban follows the 2026 DRC cobalt quota imposed earlier this year and is a reinstatement of an earlier restriction rather than a novel policy. Chinese smelters dependent on DRC concentrate face immediate sourcing disruption; the move escalates a pattern of export nationalism following Indonesia on nickel and Zimbabwe on lithium, reshaping how processing capacity is allocated globally.

The International Energy Agency warned on July 16 that full implementation of China's rare earth export restrictions could disrupt US$6.5 trillion of downstream production outside China, the most comprehensive market-risk assessment yet of Beijing's export-control regime. China's commerce ministry launched a cash-reward programme July 1 for informants reporting illegal rare-earth exports, adding a civilian enforcement layer to an architecture already spanning the Mineral Resources Law (June 15) and a 46-firm defence-procurement ban. MP Materials and USA Rare Earth were blacklisted June 22; MOFCOM Announcement No. 26 took effect July 1. India and Japan signed the UNICORN defence-materials deal July 2, the clearest allied response so far. NdPr metal ran 160% in four months to US$137/kg before correcting; European ex-China rare earth prices are at six times domestic Chinese levels. MP Materials is producing NdFeB magnets at Fort Worth under a US$400m DoD equity stake. Battery metals: lithium nearly doubled in Q1 2026; China suspended graphite export licences until at least November 2026, covering 97% of spherical graphite. Gallium reached US$2,269/kg in the West versus US$246/kg in China. The US Trump administration announced US$3 billion in government investment across domestic and allied critical minerals projects on August 7, explicitly linking the spending to rebuilding weapons stockpiles depleted during the US-Israel war on Iran and reducing dependence on Chinese processing; CNBC framed it as a defense-necessity measure; The National placed it within a broader multipolar realignment as multiple governments diversify away from Chinese supply chains.

Watch: whether CMOC and Glencore comply with the DRC ban or seek exemptions; which specific projects receive the US$3B and in which allied countries; whether the US investment triggers matching G7 minerals commitments; cobalt and copper spot price moves after the DRC ban; whether Chinese smelters invest in DRC-based refining capacity; IEA US$6.5T figure and allied procurement timelines; CRMA permitting pace; US 45X FEOC implementation.

Chile holds the world's largest lithium reserves in the Atacama Desert; its 2023 state-majority nationalization model, pairing Codelco with SQM, defines the global critical-minerals sovereignty debate.

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Resource nationalism: five producing states using export controls to capture battery-metal value

As battery-metal demand accelerates, Indonesia, the DRC, Guinea, Chile and Zimbabwe are using export quotas, bans and permit revocations to keep more mineral value at home.

·4 시각 ·7월 3일

SQM (Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile)

Chile's dominant lithium brine producer and the world's second-largest, SQM operates the Salar de Atacama under a 2023 state JV transferring control to Codelco by 2031.

·4 시각 ·7월 3일

리튬 가격 두 배 상승으로 SQM 1분기 매출 70% 급등. 텐치가 지분을 매각하는 동안 코델코 합작법인은 칠레 국가에 5억 3000만 달러를 배분했다

2026년 1분기 리튬 매출은 전년 대비 69.8% 증가한 17억 6000만 달러로 컨센서스를 상회했다. 평균 실현 가격은 2025년 4분기 킬로그램당 10달러에서 18달러로 회복됐다. 텐치는 2월에 1.25%를 매각했고 SQM은 2026년 물량 가이던스를 15% 이상 성장으로 상향했다

누구의 돈인가 ·9 시각 ·7월 9일

칠레 대법원, SQM·Codelco 리튬 합작 승인… 2년간의 법적 불확실성 종식

1월 26일 판결이 칠레 국유화 모델에 대한 마지막 법적 이의를 제거했다. Codelco가 과반 플러스 1주를 보유하고 SQM이 아타카마 염호(Salar de Atacama)를 운영하는 2026-2030년 통합 단계가 시작된다

누가 결정하는가 ·5 시각 ·7월 7일

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