석유부는 생산 한도를 올리지 않으면 '가입 유지 또는 탈퇴 결정을 내려야 할 것'이라고 경고했지만 수시간 뒤 비공식 발언으로 선을 그어
무역과 규칙
Tariffs, subsidies, sanctions and export controls.
현황
Three structural shifts are live. Washington paused Iran oil sanctions for 60 days, resuming dollar-denominated Iranian crude trade for the first time in four decades, the August waiver deadline is the next decision point. Trump declined to renew the USMCA, converting a clean extension into annual reviews over ~$2 trillion in North American trade. And the steel and aluminium tariff revamp is renegotiating Section 232 deals with the UK, EU, Japan and Australia under a quota-plus-minimum-price framework, the UK deal is closest to signature. The SCOTUS Helms-Burton ruling (6-3) strips sovereign immunity from Cuban state companies, unlocking hundreds of pending expropriation suits and complicating any Cuba normalisation track. The MOFCOM Announcement No. 26 (effective July 1, whistleblower rewards for illegal exports) signals China is converting export-control law into active enforcement. Watch the August Iran waiver, the UK metals deal, and MOFCOM's first enforcement actions.
추적 중
관세 전선
블록과 협정
산업 정책과 보조금
최신
사우디 라스 타누라, 3월 이후 처음으로 유조선 적재 재개, 브렌트유는 전시 고점 대비 37% 하락
active IAEA와 이란, 핵 사찰관 복귀 시점 놓고 충돌
그로시 사무총장은 양해각서가 사찰을 보장한다고 밝히고, 테헤란은 최종 합의 후에만 사찰을 받겠다고 맞서며, 60일 휴전 창이 닳아가고 있다
pending-decision 인도·미국, 7월 24일 관세 스냅백 앞두고 협상 타결 없이 라운드 종료
고얄과 그리어, '실질적 진전' 표명하나 핵심 쟁점 미해결 상태로 남겨
contested-result 중간 회랑 물동량 감소, 카스피해 횡단 노선이 용량 한계에 도달
카스피해 횡단 화물이 2025년 412만 톤으로 감소한 가운데, 카자흐스탄은 병목 해소를 위해 세계은행으로부터 8억 4600만 달러 보증을 확보
전인대 상무위원회가 연간 1,200만 개 일자리를 목표로 하는 독립된 5개년 고용 계획을 승인했다. 베이징은 동시에 주권 평등과 다자주의를 기둥으로 한 47페이지의 거버넌스 선언을 공개했다
Manufacturing utilisation near a decade low, retail growth at a three-year trough, and Beijing answers with 'anti-involution', not a consumer bailout
Beijing adds 10 US firms June 22; MOFCOM Announcement No. 26 (June 24, effective July 1) adds whistleblower rewards for illegal exports; Mineral Resources Law in force June 15
토카예프의 브뤼셀 방문 중 30건의 상업 협정 체결, 아스타나는 EU 34개 핵심 원자재 중 21개 공급 제안, 비자 편의화 협정도 가서명
국유기업부가 폐지되고 감독 권한은 국부펀드 다난타라로 이관, 1100개 국가 기관을 257개로 통합하는 것이 목표
General License X resumes Iranian crude exports with banking, insurance and shipping cover after the Hormuz reopening
The Supreme Court's Helms-Burton ruling waives sovereign immunity for Cuban state companies; Exxon's claim exceeds $1 billion, opening the door to a wave of expropriation suits
Four US fabs fully booked, second Arizona fab pulls 3nm tool-install into Q3 2026; full-year revenue guided up >30% on AI demand still outpacing supply
Every EU member now runs a deficit with Beijing; leaders weigh a 'menu' of trade measures
Lutnick alleges EUV-related components and transport gear reached China; ASML insists no system or EUV-specific part was ever delivered, as BIS enforcement looms
At a 35th-anniversary summit in Kazan, ASEAN and Russia adopt four cooperation documents; the Philippines' Marcos co-chairs even as he leans on Washington
Tan calls 2026 an 'execution year': 18A in high-volume manufacturing, a preliminary Apple foundry deal, but zero fully committed external 14A customers
France hosts a summit that hardens the Russia line and claims a 'deep change' in the US approach, at the cost of consensus theatre
pending-decision Modi and Trump fast-track the India-US trade pact at the G7
First leaders' talks in 16 months order a 'commercially meaningful' deal; USTR Greer flies to Delhi as a July 24 tariff cliff looms and Congress cries appeasement
'A deal is a deal', MEPs approve the Turnberry framework while warning it is unbalanced
21-gun salute for Min Aung Hlaing, a 'shared future' joint statement, RMB–kyat settlement and Kyaukpyu, Beijing legitimises a ballot that barred the opposition
China's lead foundry scales N+2 output for Ascend 910C/910D as Huawei targets ~600k dies; HBM and yields, not lithography, are now the bottleneck
pending-decision Sheinbaum walks into the USMCA review having already tariffed China to please Washington
Mexico dodged Trump's reciprocal tariffs; now the July 1 joint review turns on whether it can keep China out of North America's supply chain
Beijing investigates memory pricing, fines could reach $2.5B, while domestic champion CXMT files for a $4.2B IPO and nears third-largest by wafer capacity
Washington forgoes the joint extension, leaving ~$2 trillion in North American trade under prolonged uncertainty
pending-decision USTR proposes forced-labor tariffs on 60 economies, Trump's post-IEEPA tariff vehicle
After the Supreme Court voided IEEPA tariffs, Section 301 becomes the new, uncapped lever against China, India, the EU and dozens more
A 30-day deadline lapses, Washington moves on a 25% levy, and Lula readies a retaliation law months before facing Flávio Bolsonaro
A 1 June proclamation cuts farm-equipment duties and rewards high US material content, building a new tariff wall
Brussels bans Brazilian meat, poultry and honey from September over growth-promoter use, weeks after Mercosur-EU took provisional effect
Pappberger cites artillery shells up from 70,000 to 1.1m/yr; Europe's 155mm output now eclipses American lines
Hopes that the EU-India trade deal would revive the India-Mideast-Europe Corridor run into India-US friction and a Hormuz stress test
US holds 42% of exports; Germany overtakes China; Ukraine is the world's top arms importer
Anti-corruption probes, contract delays and a Pakistan buying collapse drag Chinese sales to a 15-year low
pending-decision EU and India clinch the 'mother of all' trade deals
Two decades of stalled talks ended on geopolitics as much as commerce; the text is signed only on paper, with formal signature due by end-2026