Chile lithium

tracked under Minerals ▸ Resource nationalism

state of play · Minerals

The DRC government reinstated a ban on copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate exports on August 6, sending copper to an all-time price record and compounding a simultaneously reported sulfuric acid supply collapse affecting smelter operations. The DRC holds approximately 70% of global cobalt reserves; CMOC, the world's largest cobalt producer, operates primarily there. The ban follows the 2026 DRC cobalt quota imposed earlier this year and is a reinstatement of an earlier restriction rather than a novel policy. Chinese smelters dependent on DRC concentrate face immediate sourcing disruption; the move escalates a pattern of export nationalism following Indonesia on nickel and Zimbabwe on lithium, reshaping how processing capacity is allocated globally.

The International Energy Agency warned on July 16 that full implementation of China's rare earth export restrictions could disrupt US$6.5 trillion of downstream production outside China, the most comprehensive market-risk assessment yet of Beijing's export-control regime. China's commerce ministry launched a cash-reward programme July 1 for informants reporting illegal rare-earth exports, adding a civilian enforcement layer to an architecture already spanning the Mineral Resources Law (June 15) and a 46-firm defence-procurement ban. MP Materials and USA Rare Earth were blacklisted June 22; MOFCOM Announcement No. 26 took effect July 1. India and Japan signed the UNICORN defence-materials deal July 2, the clearest allied response so far. NdPr metal ran 160% in four months to US$137/kg before correcting; European ex-China rare earth prices are at six times domestic Chinese levels. MP Materials is producing NdFeB magnets at Fort Worth under a US$400m DoD equity stake. Battery metals: lithium nearly doubled in Q1 2026; China suspended graphite export licences until at least November 2026, covering 97% of spherical graphite. Gallium reached US$2,269/kg in the West versus US$246/kg in China. The US Trump administration announced US$3 billion in government investment across domestic and allied critical minerals projects on August 7, explicitly linking the spending to rebuilding weapons stockpiles depleted during the US-Israel war on Iran and reducing dependence on Chinese processing; CNBC framed it as a defense-necessity measure; The National placed it within a broader multipolar realignment as multiple governments diversify away from Chinese supply chains.

Watch: whether CMOC and Glencore comply with the DRC ban or seek exemptions; which specific projects receive the US$3B and in which allied countries; whether the US investment triggers matching G7 minerals commitments; cobalt and copper spot price moves after the DRC ban; whether Chinese smelters invest in DRC-based refining capacity; IEA US$6.5T figure and allied procurement timelines; CRMA permitting pace; US 45X FEOC implementation.

Chile holds the world's largest lithium reserves in the Atacama Desert; its 2023 state-majority nationalization model, pairing Codelco with SQM, defines the global critical-minerals sovereignty debate.

full dossier ›

Resource nationalism: five producing states using export controls to capture battery-metal value

As battery-metal demand accelerates, Indonesia, the DRC, Guinea, Chile and Zimbabwe are using export quotas, bans and permit revocations to keep more mineral value at home.

·4 takes ·Jul 3

SQM (Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile)

Chile's dominant lithium brine producer and the world's second-largest, SQM operates the Salar de Atacama under a 2023 state JV transferring control to Codelco by 2031.

·4 takes ·Jul 3

SQM Q1 revenue rose 70% as lithium price doubled; Tianqi cut its stake while the Codelco JV paid $530M to the Chilean state

Q1 2026 lithium revenue of $1.76B beat consensus on a 69.8% YoY gain; average realised price recovered to $18/kg from $10/kg in Q4 2025; Tianqi sold 1.25% in February as SQM upgraded 2026 volume guidance to 15%+ growth

Whose Money ·9 takes ·Jul 9

Chile's Supreme Court clears the SQM-Codelco lithium JV, ending two years of legal uncertainty

A January 26 ruling removed the final legal challenge to Chile's nationalization model; the 2026-2030 integration phase begins with Codelco holding a majority-plus-one share and SQM operating the Salar de Atacama

Who Decides ·5 takes ·Jul 7

The briefing, by email