RSF masses around el-Obeid as 29 countries warn of the next El Fasher
After taking El Fasher in October, the Rapid Support Forces redeploy armour toward central Sudan's army hub; the army answers with drones and the Security Council warns of mass atrocities
Summary
The Sudan War is escalating toward its next siege. Having captured El Fasher in October 2025 after an 18-month siege, a fall the UN found bore indications of genocide against the Fur and Zaghawa, the RSF have redeployed armour from western Sudan toward el-Obeid, North Kordofan's capital and the army's command and logistics hub at the junction of two strategic highways. Critical Threats tracked dozens of armoured vehicles and possible air-defence systems moving to frontline positions. The army has answered with ten-plus days of drone strikes to pre-empt the assault, strikes that have also killed at least 50 civilians. At least 29 countries warned at the Human Rights Council of imminent atrocities; the Security Council demanded the RSF halt.
By the numbers
- 29+, countries warning of atrocities at the Human Rights Council.
- 50+, civilians killed in 10 days of army drone strikes across North Kordofan.
- 18 months, duration of siege-like conditions el-Obeid residents have endured.
- Oct 2025, fall of El Fasher, the precedent invoked.
Why it matters
El-Obeid is the gateway to central Sudan; its fall would unlock RSF pressure toward the Nile valley and Khartoum and break the stalemate. The El Fasher precedent makes the atrocity warning concrete. UAE arms allegations (미 상원의원들, 수단 RSF 무기 지원 관련 UAE 무기 판매 저지 나서) keep the external-backer question live.
What to watch
- Whether the RSF launches the ground assault or holds under army drone pressure.
- Mass-atrocity reporting if el-Obeid falls, the El Fasher pattern.
- Any Security Council or AU action beyond statements.