Zambia misses 1 million tonne copper target in 2025, restates ambition for 2026 as Lobito Corridor rail advances

Summary

Zambia produced 890,346 tonnes of copper in 2025, a national record and an 8% increase on 2024, but fell short of the 1 million metric tonne target that President Hakainde Hichilema's government had set as a flagship economic commitment. The government formally restated the 1 million tonne ambition for 2026 in January, with expanded operations at Konkola, Mopani and First Quantum's Kansanshi mine expected to close the gap. A tailings dam failure at Sino-Metals Leach disrupted output during 2025 and contributed to the shortfall. On the logistics front, the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) is now inviting bids for the 800km Zambian section of the Lobito Corridor railway, a critical link to the Angolan port of Lobito and the Atlantic, which KoBold Metals has anchored with a 300,000-tonne-per-year copper off-take commitment. Kansanshi's expanded phase is projected at 175,000 to 205,000 tonnes for 2026, making it one of the largest single contributions to the national total.

The split

The Zambian government and mining industry frame 2025's 8% output growth as proof the post-debt-restructuring economic plan is working, and point to the Lobito Corridor railway as the infrastructure that will allow Zambia to fully monetise its copper reserves. Critics in civil society and opposition parties argue that the 1 million tonne target has become a political number rather than an operational plan, and that the fiscal gains from copper revenues are not flowing into the health and education services that most Zambians depend on. The Sino-Metals tailings dam collapse, which received limited government acknowledgement, raised environmental-oversight concerns that development-finance institutions are beginning to flag as a risk for future lending.

By the numbers

• 890,346 tonnes, Zambia's copper production in 2025 (national record, up 8%)
• 1 million tonnes, the government's copper production target restated for 2026
• 800km, the Zambia section of the Lobito Corridor railway for which AFC is inviting bids
• 300,000 tonnes/year, KoBold Metals' copper off-take commitment anchoring the Lobito Corridor
• 175,000-205,000 tonnes, First Quantum Kansanshi's projected 2026 output

Why it matters

Copper is central to Zambia's post-debt-restructuring growth story. Hitting 1 million tonnes would make Zambia the third-largest copper producer in the world and materially strengthen the tax revenues that the government is relying on to rebuild fiscal space after the 2020 default. The Lobito Corridor, if built, changes the economics of Zambian copper by cutting transport costs to Atlantic ports; KoBold Metals' anchor off-take reduces the financing risk enough that the AFC can now go to market for construction bids. The tailings dam failure at Sino-Metals is a reminder that rapid output expansion carries environmental risks that, if poorly managed, can trigger project shutdowns and reputational damage with ESG-sensitive buyers.

What to watch

• Whether Zambia's 2026 copper output actually reaches 1 million tonnes, with Kansanshi's expanded phase as the critical variable.
• AFC's Lobito Corridor bid process: timeline to financial close and construction start on the Zambia rail section.
• Environmental follow-up on the Sino-Metals tailings dam failure: government liability and whether it triggers tighter mining regulations.
• Copper price dynamics and whether Zambia's increased volumes translate into the fiscal surplus its debt-service schedule requires.