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Reads the move as a hawkish surprise: with inflation easing, markets expected 50bp, but the bank flagged a more stimulative budget path that may require tighter money than its baseline through 2029.

“Russia surprises with a smaller rate cut even as inflation eases.”

Casts the tool as the next stage of a multi-year pivot to overnight rates as the primary lever, complementing the 7-day reverse repo benchmark and aligning the PBoC more closely with the Fed and ECB.

“PBOC plans overnight reverse repo in next stage of policy shift, the debut follows Governor Pan Gongsheng's pledge to introduce overnight repos.”