The industrial recovery of lithium, cobalt, and nickel from spent EV batteries, now structurally mandated by EU law and the central supply-chain bet against dependence on new primary mining.

Lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite and manganese power every battery cell; their supply is highly concentrated, making these minerals the chokepoints of the global electric transition.

The carbon mineral at the core of every lithium-ion battery anode, where China controls 97% of global processing capacity and wields that position as an export-control lever.

The only commercial route from low-grade Indonesian laterite ore to battery-grade nickel, now structurally exposed by sulphuric acid import dependency and Jakarta's supply controls.

印度尼西亚持有全球42%的镍储量，生产全球约60%的供应量，使雅加达对电动汽车电池供应链拥有决定性影响力

Russia's largest mining company and the world's dominant palladium producer, whose Arctic ore bodies and sanctions exposure make it a structural variable in global critical-mineral supply chains.

A platinum-group metal supplying roughly 85% of gasoline-catalytic-converter demand globally; Russia's Nornickel controls 40% of world output, making palladium a geopolitically exposed critical mineral.

Brazil's Vale S.A. is the world's largest iron ore producer and a top-three nickel miner, central to critical-mineral supply chains and defined by two lethal dam collapses.

RKAB审批量用尽，年中补充申请窗口成为市场的全部指望

欧盟第20轮制裁封堵了一条出口通道，但Global Witness发现漏洞；2026年一季度钯产量下降10-11%；诺镍正与厦门建发就每年200万吨铜精矿合资项目谈判

Vale Base Metals在推进与Glencore在萨德伯里盆地的合资项目之际，报告第一季度铜产量创纪录、镍产量接近纪录；随着Vale寻求将基础金属与铁矿石进行战略分离，2026年计划投入54亿至57亿美元资本支出

首轮电动车电池回收洗牌把商业规模的幸存者与资本不足的初创企业区分开来；Redwood Materials估值达60亿美元，德国cylib募资6,340万欧元，欧盟电池护照合规期限为该行业设定了监管底线

欧盟委员会2026年3月公布CRMA战略项目第二批遴选，累计达94个项目；成员国须在24个月内发放许可；CRMA设定2030年供应基准，要求本土开采10%、欧盟境内加工40%

雅加达2026年RKAB配额为2.7亿吨(自3.79亿吨下调)，收紧了原料供应；酸成本逼近1,000美元/吨，HPAL利用率降至70%~75%

众议院通过的这项预算调节法案，终止了IRA对2026年之后开工项目的风电生产和投资抵免，延长并修改了45X先进制造抵免，禁止FEOC来源的材料享受45X资格，并新增一项冶金煤抵免；参议院结果尚不确定