Guinea bauxite

态势 · 矿产

The DRC government reinstated a ban on copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate exports on August 6, sending copper to an all-time price record and compounding a simultaneously reported sulfuric acid supply collapse affecting smelter operations. The DRC holds approximately 70% of global cobalt reserves; CMOC, the world's largest cobalt producer, operates primarily there. The ban follows the 2026 DRC cobalt quota imposed earlier this year and is a reinstatement of an earlier restriction rather than a novel policy. Chinese smelters dependent on DRC concentrate face immediate sourcing disruption; the move escalates a pattern of export nationalism following Indonesia on nickel and Zimbabwe on lithium, reshaping how processing capacity is allocated globally.

The International Energy Agency warned on July 16 that full implementation of China's rare earth export restrictions could disrupt US$6.5 trillion of downstream production outside China, the most comprehensive market-risk assessment yet of Beijing's export-control regime. China's commerce ministry launched a cash-reward programme July 1 for informants reporting illegal rare-earth exports, adding a civilian enforcement layer to an architecture already spanning the Mineral Resources Law (June 15) and a 46-firm defence-procurement ban. MP Materials and USA Rare Earth were blacklisted June 22; MOFCOM Announcement No. 26 took effect July 1. India and Japan signed the UNICORN defence-materials deal July 2, the clearest allied response so far. NdPr metal ran 160% in four months to US$137/kg before correcting; European ex-China rare earth prices are at six times domestic Chinese levels. MP Materials is producing NdFeB magnets at Fort Worth under a US$400m DoD equity stake. Battery metals: lithium nearly doubled in Q1 2026; China suspended graphite export licences until at least November 2026, covering 97% of spherical graphite. Gallium reached US$2,269/kg in the West versus US$246/kg in China. The US Trump administration announced US$3 billion in government investment across domestic and allied critical minerals projects on August 7, explicitly linking the spending to rebuilding weapons stockpiles depleted during the US-Israel war on Iran and reducing dependence on Chinese processing; CNBC framed it as a defense-necessity measure; The National placed it within a broader multipolar realignment as multiple governments diversify away from Chinese supply chains.

Watch: whether CMOC and Glencore comply with the DRC ban or seek exemptions; which specific projects receive the US$3B and in which allied countries; whether the US investment triggers matching G7 minerals commitments; cobalt and copper spot price moves after the DRC ban; whether Chinese smelters invest in DRC-based refining capacity; IEA US$6.5T figure and allied procurement timelines; CRMA permitting pace; US 45X FEOC implementation.

Guinea holds the world's largest bauxite reserves and supplies roughly three-quarters of China's imports, making it a critical chokepoint in the global aluminium supply chain.

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铝

年产量约7,100万吨、仅次于钢铁的全球第二大宗金属。中国占全球冶炼量的57%；几内亚铝土矿出口上限与俄罗斯铝业受制裁是2026年重塑供应链的两大核心结构性力量

·4 视角 ·7月3日

Resource nationalism: five producing states using export controls to capture battery-metal value

As battery-metal demand accelerates, Indonesia, the DRC, Guinea, Chile and Zimbabwe are using export quotas, bans and permit revocations to keep more mineral value at home.

·4 视角 ·7月3日

几内亚将铝土矿出口上限设为每年1.5亿吨，中铝公司博法精炼厂同期开工

2026年6月出口上限出台之际，铝土矿价格较2025年初高点下跌约50%；Axis International在许可证被撤销后向世界银行提起289亿美元仲裁；中国铝土矿进口的75%来自几内亚

谁说了算 ·9 视角 ·7月7日

几内亚与阿联酋环球铝业和解铝土矿争端，恢复对阿布扎比精炼厂的供应

5月6日的协议彻底解决了GAC活动被暂停的问题；CBG恢复向EGA的塔维拉氧化铝精炼厂供应铝土矿；几内亚的宁巴矿业公司接手桑加雷迪项目资产

谁的钱 ·7 视角 ·6月25日

简报，直达邮箱