HPAL (nickel)

态势 · 矿产

The DRC government reinstated a ban on copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate exports on August 6, sending copper to an all-time price record and compounding a simultaneously reported sulfuric acid supply collapse affecting smelter operations. The DRC holds approximately 70% of global cobalt reserves; CMOC, the world's largest cobalt producer, operates primarily there. The ban follows the 2026 DRC cobalt quota imposed earlier this year and is a reinstatement of an earlier restriction rather than a novel policy. Chinese smelters dependent on DRC concentrate face immediate sourcing disruption; the move escalates a pattern of export nationalism following Indonesia on nickel and Zimbabwe on lithium, reshaping how processing capacity is allocated globally.

The International Energy Agency warned on July 16 that full implementation of China's rare earth export restrictions could disrupt US$6.5 trillion of downstream production outside China, the most comprehensive market-risk assessment yet of Beijing's export-control regime. China's commerce ministry launched a cash-reward programme July 1 for informants reporting illegal rare-earth exports, adding a civilian enforcement layer to an architecture already spanning the Mineral Resources Law (June 15) and a 46-firm defence-procurement ban. MP Materials and USA Rare Earth were blacklisted June 22; MOFCOM Announcement No. 26 took effect July 1. India and Japan signed the UNICORN defence-materials deal July 2, the clearest allied response so far. NdPr metal ran 160% in four months to US$137/kg before correcting; European ex-China rare earth prices are at six times domestic Chinese levels. MP Materials is producing NdFeB magnets at Fort Worth under a US$400m DoD equity stake. Battery metals: lithium nearly doubled in Q1 2026; China suspended graphite export licences until at least November 2026, covering 97% of spherical graphite. Gallium reached US$2,269/kg in the West versus US$246/kg in China. The US Trump administration announced US$3 billion in government investment across domestic and allied critical minerals projects on August 7, explicitly linking the spending to rebuilding weapons stockpiles depleted during the US-Israel war on Iran and reducing dependence on Chinese processing; CNBC framed it as a defense-necessity measure; The National placed it within a broader multipolar realignment as multiple governments diversify away from Chinese supply chains.

Watch: whether CMOC and Glencore comply with the DRC ban or seek exemptions; which specific projects receive the US$3B and in which allied countries; whether the US investment triggers matching G7 minerals commitments; cobalt and copper spot price moves after the DRC ban; whether Chinese smelters invest in DRC-based refining capacity; IEA US$6.5T figure and allied procurement timelines; CRMA permitting pace; US 45X FEOC implementation.

The only commercial route from low-grade Indonesian laterite ore to battery-grade nickel, now structurally exposed by sulphuric acid import dependency and Jakarta's supply controls.

完整档案 ›

Processing chokepoints: the refining and conversion technologies that concentrate supply-chain power in critical minerals

Seven technologies, from high-pressure acid leaching to battery recycling, determine whether refined critical minerals reach EV batteries and magnets from diversified or concentrated sources.

·4 视角 ·7月3日

印度尼西亚镍

印度尼西亚持有全球42%的镍储量，生产全球约60%的供应量，使雅加达对电动汽车电池供应链拥有决定性影响力

·5 视角 ·7月3日

Nickel

Hard-to-substitute transition metal driving EV batteries and stainless steel, with Indonesia controlling 60% of world mine supply and giving Jakarta decisive leverage over global manufacturing costs.

·4 视角 ·7月3日

印度尼西亚2026年镍矿开采配额触及上限，冶炼厂原料告急

RKAB审批量用尽，年中补充申请窗口成为市场的全部指望

谁的钱 ·5 视角 ·6月28日

简报，直达邮箱