Pakistan launches air strikes on Kabul in 'open war' with Taliban as cross-border attacks escalate to drone strikes on Pakistani territory

Summary

Afghanistan and Pakistan entered what Pakistani officials called "open war" in February 2026 when Pakistan launched air strikes on Kabul and Kandahar on 27 February, in retaliation for a series of cross-border militant attacks that Islamabad attributed to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fighters operating from Taliban-controlled Afghan territory. The Taliban government rejected any responsibility and called the strikes an act of aggression. Chinese-mediated talks in Urumqi in April 2026 produced a brief lull that did not hold. By late June 2026 Pakistan had conducted multiple further air strike packages, and Afghanistan's Taliban government responded by launching drone strikes on Pakistani territory, marking the first Afghan aerial retaliation against Pakistan and a significant escalation of the conflict. No ceasefire was in place as of early July 2026. The conflict is unfolding against a backdrop of 17.4 million Afghans already facing acute food insecurity and a US$1.44 billion UN humanitarian funding gap, with Pakistan's strikes complicating aid delivery to border communities.

The split

Pakistan's government frames the air strikes as a legitimate exercise of self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter, citing TTP attacks that have killed hundreds of Pakistani soldiers and civilians since the Taliban's 2021 takeover created a permissive environment for the group. The Taliban government and sympathetic regional commentary argue Pakistan is bombing a country it cannot govern by proxy anymore, and that the strikes are radicalising Pakistani Pashtuns as much as they are pressuring the Taliban. China, which mediated the April Urumqi talks, is caught between its strategic interest in Pakistani stability (CPEC) and its formal engagement with the Taliban government, which it has cultivated as part of its Central Asian influence strategy.

By the numbers

• 27 February 2026, Pakistan launched the initial air strikes on Kabul and Kandahar
• 17.4 million, Afghans facing acute food insecurity (OCHA May 2026)
• US$1.44bn, the UN's 2026 humanitarian funding gap for Afghanistan
• April 2026, the Chinese-mediated Urumqi talks that produced a brief lull
• Late June 2026, Afghanistan launched drone strikes on Pakistani territory

Why it matters

The Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict is a crisis between two nuclear-armed states, though Afghanistan has no nuclear capability of its own. Pakistan has nuclear weapons. The military conflict risks destabilising Pakistan's internal security at a time when the country is already under significant economic and political pressure, and threatens the remaining humanitarian infrastructure in eastern Afghanistan. For the wider region, a prolonged conflict along the Durand Line radicalises the Pashtun population on both sides, strengthens TTP recruitment, and potentially draws in other actors, including Iran, which also has an interest in Afghan border security.

What to watch

• Whether China relaunches mediation efforts following the collapse of the April Urumqi talks.
• Pakistan's military capacity for sustained operations in Afghanistan without triggering domestic political backlash from Pashtun communities.
• Humanitarian impact on border provinces and whether UN agencies can maintain operations with active air strikes in the region.
• Whether the Afghan drone programme signals Taliban acquisition of a genuine military aviation capacity, or is one-off improvisation.