Madagascar's Colonel Randrianirina takes power after October 2025 coup, promises 2027 elections as AU suspends membership

Summary

On 12-14 October 2025, CAPSAT, Madagascar's special forces commando unit, publicly defected from President Andry Rajoelina and joined protesters gathered in Antananarivo after months of political tension over a disputed constitutional reform package. Rajoelina fled Madagascar aboard a French military aircraft on October 13. The African Union suspended Madagascar's membership on October 15, characterising the transfer of power as an unconstitutional change of government. On October 17, the High Constitutional Court swore in Colonel Michael Randrianirina, who had commanded the CAPSAT forces, as interim president; he pledged elections within 18 to 24 months and denied the action constituted a coup. A new 29-member government was announced on October 28. In his first formal national address on November 17, Randrianirina set out a four-phase transition plan culminating in a constitutional referendum followed by a presidential election targeted for October 2027. France has cautiously acknowledged the transitional authority without formally recognising it. Madagascar has been suspended from the AU since the seizure of power.

The split

Randrianirina and his supporters frame the October seizure as a popular uprising against a president who had governed through constitutional manipulation, corruption and suppression of dissent, and point to large crowds that gathered in Antananarivo as evidence of public support. The AU, Western governments and rights organisations characterise it as a straightforward military coup and warn that Madagascar's cycle of unconstitutional power transfers, which now includes the coups of 2009 and 2025, undermines every institution needed for the democratic elections Randrianirina promises. Regional African diplomats note that Madagascar's geography (an island 400km off the east African coast) and the weakness of its political parties make the AU's usual sanctions and mediation tools less effective than in mainland cases.

By the numbers

• October 12-14, 2025, the dates CAPSAT seized power and Rajoelina fled
• October 15, 2025, the date the AU suspended Madagascar's membership
• October 17, 2025, the date Randrianirina was sworn in as interim president
• 29 members, the new government announced October 28, 2025
• October 2027, the target date for a presidential election under the four-phase transition plan
• 2009, the year of Madagascar's previous coup (which also triggered AU suspension)

Why it matters

Madagascar is the world's largest vanilla producer and a significant source of ilmenite, sapphires and cobalt, minerals relevant to both the battery-supply chain and the global luxury goods market. Political instability disrupts contract enforcement and export logistics for commodity buyers. The AU suspension also limits Madagascar's access to regional development finance, at a time when the island's poverty rate (roughly 75% below US$2.15/day) requires sustained investment. The parallels with the 2009 coup, which brought Rajoelina to power initially as a transitional figure, are not lost on observers: Randrianirina is now in the same position Rajoelina was in 16 years ago, promising elections from a military-installed transitional authority.

What to watch

• Whether Randrianirina's four-phase transition plan produces an actual constitutional referendum and election by October 2027, or delays as previous transitional authorities did.
• AU and international community stance: whether the suspension is lifted conditionally on progress benchmarks or maintained as a blanket sanction.
• Rajoelina's location and whether he mounts a political challenge from abroad or accepts the transition.
• Impact on Madagascar's vanilla and mineral exports and whether foreign buyers maintain contracts with a government not yet internationally recognised.