Zambia's Hichilema vows to keep US$6.5bn forex reserves intact as August election campaign heats up

Summary

Zambia's President Hakainde Hichilema went on the campaign trail in late June defending his government's decision to hold US$6.5bn in foreign exchange reserves, a sum built from copper revenues and the post-default stabilisation that followed Zambia's 2020 Eurobond restructuring. Hichilema pledged to use the reserves only in genuine national emergencies, such as drought-induced food crises or currency shocks, and rejected opposition calls to deploy them for immediate cost-of-living relief. The reserves have become the defining economic argument of the campaign: the government says they prove macroeconomic discipline; the main opposition United Party for National Development (UPND breakaway factions) and other challengers argue they represent a failure to invest in visible improvements. The August 13, 2026 general election is Hichilema's toughest since his landslide 2021 win: the Bertelsmann Transformation Index 2026 gave his first term below-average marks on both economic performance and rule of law, and civil-society groups have documented increased pressure on political opponents and the media.

The split

Hichilema's camp frames the reserves as proof that Zambia has finally escaped the trap of short-term populist spending that drove the 2020 default and argues they protect Zambia from future commodity shocks. His opponents argue that a government sitting on US$6.5bn while copper miners remain underpaid and food prices remain elevated has its priorities wrong. Regional analysts note that Zambia's copper sector aspirations, including a publicly stated target of 1 million metric tonnes of annual production, have not yet materialised, and that the Lobito Corridor's expansion of export infrastructure alone will not solve labour-market depth problems.

By the numbers

• US$6.5bn, Zambia's foreign exchange reserves as of June 2026
• August 13, 2026, the date of Zambia's general election
• 2020, the year Zambia defaulted on its Eurobond debt
• 1 million metric tonnes, Hichilema's copper production target
• Below average, Zambia's BTI 2026 rating on economic performance and rule of law

Why it matters

Zambia is a bellwether for Africa's post-default reform programme: it was the first African country to resolve its Covid-era sovereign debt restructuring under the G20's Common Framework and the first to demonstrate a path back to reserve accumulation. Hichilema's re-election or defeat will signal whether African electorates reward macroeconomic discipline at the ballot box or punish governments for austerity that improves headline figures without improving daily life. The outcome also affects the Lobito Corridor project, in which Zambia is a transit state and potential copper-export route.

What to watch

• August 13 election results, including margin of victory or defeat.
• Whether the copper-production target is confirmed or revised before the election.
• Any opposition unity deal that could consolidate the anti-Hichilema vote.
• Copper price trajectory, which directly determines reserve inflow.