mining-investment analytical
按立场 · 3 视角 本期全站
Frames the RKAB quota reduction from 379Mt (2025) to 270Mt (2026) not as a temporary squeeze but as a permanent repricing of HPAL's structural cost floor; calculates that rising ore grades below 1.5% increase acid consumption per unit of nickel recovered under a fixed HPAL chemistry constraint.
“Not a temporary squeeze on margins but a reconfiguration of the structural cost floor for High Pressure Acid Leach production.”
Documents the May 2026 NdPr price spike to 100% month-on-month increase at the April peak (~$137/kg NdPr metal), and subsequent ~35% correction; argues this 'scarcity premium' is structural, not speculative: China's ex-China supply is genuinely constrained and no Western refinery can absorb displaced demand.
“Sharp surge in praseodymium-neodymium prices signals a deepening scarcity premium in rare earth supply chains.”
Analyses the twin supply shock: Myanmar's Man Maw mine halted by conflict and infrastructure damage, Indonesian government closing illegal Sumatra operations. Notes that the two supply disruptions are concurrent rather than sequential, removing redundancy from a market where Southeast Asian production has historically buffered each other's outages.
“Tin reaches $38,000/t on concurrent Myanmar and Indonesia supply shocks, repricing critical mineral scarcity risk.”