阿比·艾哈迈德繁荣党以438席压倒胜选，提格雷被排斥、阿姆哈拉动荡阴影笼罩

6月21日公布90%选票计票结果，EZEMA获13席、NaMA获6席，监察人员指出不到一半选区实现了自由投票

领导人·冲突· active 谁说了算·他们没说的 ·6 视角 ·2026年6月1日 ·rbtfl 更新 2026年6月26日

Summary

埃塞俄比亚于2026年6月1日举行议会选举，总理阿比·艾哈迈德领导的繁荣党（PP）大获全胜，6月21日在90%的选区计票完成后确认赢得547席中的438席。埃塞俄比亚社会正义公民党（EZEMA）获13席，阿姆哈拉民族运动（NaMA）获6席，其余席位由无党派人士和小型地区政党瓜分。提格雷州以安全形势为由被全面排斥于选举之外；阿姆哈拉州和奥罗米亚州部分地区也因武装冲突而投票受阻。非盟和欧盟选举监察团在肯定行政组织工作的同时，指出受冲突影响地区存在"对政治竞争的重大限制"。

Why it matters

繁荣党的绝对多数使阿比无需反对党支持便可修改宪法，而此时提格雷政治整合仍悬而未决，阿姆哈拉有法诺民兵与联邦军交战，奥罗米亚有奥罗莫解放军维持低烈度叛乱。埃塞俄比亚是非盟总部所在地，阿比政权民主合法性的削弱，将在以选举舞弊为政变借口的萨赫勒等地区进一步损害非盟选举监察规范的公信力。

What to watch

提格雷人民解放阵线是否接受延期参选，还是彻底抵制联邦政治
提格雷、阿姆哈拉及奥罗米亚解放军控制区的选举举行时间与条件
阿比是否借助超级多数席位在下届任期开始前推进修宪
非盟和美国是否将纳入提格雷作为恢复正常化谈判的前提条件

原始记录 · 1

Ethiopian National Electoral Board — The Ethiopian National Electoral Board confirmed preliminary results on June 21 with 90% of constituencies reporting: Prosperity Party 438 seats, Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA) 13, National Movement of Amhara (NaMA) 6, independents and smaller parties 90. Results from Tigray, where elections were postponed indefinitely citing security, are absent from totals.

各地视角 · 2

▸ non-aligned, Global South framing

Al Jazeera · Qatar · en · 2026年6月22日

Al Jazeera reported the PP landslide as reinforcing Abiy's hold on the federal state but flagged that Tigray's exclusion and voting disruptions in Amhara and Oromia mean that about a third of Ethiopia's population did not freely participate. Election monitors from the AU and EU issued a joint statement praising the administrative conduct while noting 'significant constraints on political competition' in conflict-affected regions.

“A third of Ethiopia's population in Tigray, Amhara, and parts of Oromia did not freely participate in elections monitors said were constrained.”

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▸ Ethiopian independent press

Addis Standard · Ethiopia · en · 2026年6月21日

Addis Standard, Ethiopia's leading independent outlet, reported on the scene across Addis Ababa and Oromia polling stations; quoted opposition leaders saying the results reflected 'a managed competition, not a free election,' and noted that NaMA's 6 seats represent a collapse from its prior showing given Amhara's ongoing security crisis. The paper also reported low turnout in areas of Oromia affected by OLA clashes.

“NaMA's 6 seats represent a collapse from prior performance as Amhara's security crisis suppressed political participation.”

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