俄罗斯向基辅发射74枚导弹和496架无人机,为战争中规模最大的袭击之一
至少22人死亡、90多人受伤;针对首都的弹道导弹使用量创纪录,泽连斯基缩短爱尔兰访问行程,波兰战机紧急升空
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后续进展
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NATO allies are expected to announce at the July 7-8 Ankara summit a binding commitment of €70 billion per year in military support for Ukraine in 2026-2027, totalling €140 billion, in part a direct response to the July 2 salvo. Ukraine's special counsel submitted renewed requests for Patriot interceptors to Europe's PURL purchasing scheme; 90-92% of Patriot interceptors now reach Ukraine through PURL. Lockheed Martin is delivering only 620 interceptors in 2026, well short of the 2,000 Ukraine requires annually. Russia did not conduct further large-scale strikes on July 3-4 as of this update, consistent with the operational pause pattern after saturation attacks. ↗
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The death toll rose to 30 as Ukrainian emergency services recovered additional bodies on July 3, the city's declared day of mourning. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko confirmed 33 locations were struck, including approximately 20 residential buildings. The July 3 death figure is the latest confirmed count; rescue operations in the partially collapsed Darnytskyi building continued. ↗
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Ukraine's Defence Minister Fedorov wrote to nearly 40 partner countries requesting immediate Patriot interceptor transfers. Ukraine estimates it needs 2,000 Patriot interceptors per year but received only 600 in four years since 2022. US Patriot stocks are simultaneously strained by the Iran campaign, which has consumed roughly half the US estimated 2,330-missile inventory since February 2026. ↗
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EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas proposed sanctions targeting 5 entities and 1 individual involved in producing Shahed/Geran drone components. Lithuania announced it would remove the constitutional ban (Article 137) on nuclear weapons deployment, citing an outdated security environment. ↗
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Ukraine's General Staff confirmed retaliatory strikes: drones hit the LUKOIL-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (Russia's fourth-largest refinery, second-largest gasoline producer), setting its AVT-6 crude processing unit on fire, along with a railway bridge over the Donets River and a drone warehouse in Zaporizhzhia. ↗
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Death toll in Kyiv rose to at least 25 as rescue operations continued; the State Emergency Service put the figure at 25 killed and 80+ wounded. One nine-storey residential building in Darnytskyi lost 64 apartments with up to 9 people feared trapped under rubble. Kyiv declared July 3 a day of mourning. ↗
概要
俄罗斯在7月2日夜间以74枚导弹袭击基辅,其中针对首都的弹道导弹在单次袭击中创下28枚的纪录,另有496架无人机,合计约570枚飞行物。截至清晨,至少22人死亡、90人受伤,死亡人数仍在上升。全城各城区30多个地点受损。达尔尼茨基区一栋9层住宅楼有6层部分坍塌;国家生物化学研究所被烧毁。全部46个地铁站避难人数达到创纪录的5万2500人。当时身在都柏林的泽连斯基在收到情报警告后返国。飞行物逼近波兰和芬兰领土时,波兰战机紧急升空,芬兰限制了空域。乌克兰同时打击了莫斯科的石油部门。
分歧
基辅独立报和乌克兰媒体以平民破坏的规模和创纪录的弹道导弹数量为首要内容,将此次打击定性为在7月7日至8日安卡拉北约峰会前蓄意最大化制造恐惧与恐慌。半岛电视台聚焦人道层面和创纪录的地铁避难人数,未对动机作出归因。包括福克斯新闻在内的美国媒体既提及来袭的攻击,也提及乌克兰同时对石油部门的打击,将其视为相互升级。俄罗斯官方媒体承认基辅是打击目标,但将袭击描述为对军事基础设施的精确打击,完全未提及住宅区伤亡。
数字一览
- 74枚导弹 + 496架无人机 = 合计约570枚飞行物;乌克兰拦截了524枚。
- 导弹构成:4枚锆石高超音速、24枚伊斯坎德尔-M/S-400弹道、34枚Kh-101巡航、8枚口径、4枚Kh-59/69。
- 无人机构成:沙赫德自杀式、格尔贝拉、伊塔尔马斯、班德罗尔,外加帕罗迪亚诱饵。
- 对基辅单次袭击中28枚弹道导弹,创单次袭击纪录。
- 22人以上死亡、90人以上受伤;截至7月2日清晨人数仍在上升。
- 基辅所有城区30多个地点受损。
- 基辅46个地铁站避难5万2500人,为战时纪录;其中4500名儿童。
为何重要
这轮齐射旨在同时饱和爱国者、SAMP/T和NASAMS防空系统,使弹道导弹得以突破,而将锆石高超音速导弹与廉价的沙赫德式诱饵搭配使用,以此前任何单次夜间袭击都未曾有过的方式对多层防空形成压力。整个北约联盟的拦截弹库存已经吃紧。此次袭击发生在北约领导人齐聚安卡拉的五天之前,强化了在外交时刻打击乌克兰平民士气的战略逻辑。目标组合,即一座研究所和遍及各城区的住宅楼,与最大化制造恐惧相符,而非对军事基础设施的精确打击。
值得关注
- 救援队清理废墟后的最终伤亡人数。
- 7月7日至8日安卡拉北约峰会的回应:领导人是否会提升防空承诺。
- 乌克兰是否会作为回应升级自身的纵深打击行动。
- 是否有迹象表明这是一场持续整个夏季轰炸行动的开端。