五天后的北约安卡拉峰会，考验土耳其换取欧洲防务准入的要价

后续进展

1. 2026年7月8日 06:00Z

   The Ankara communique was ratified on Day 2, July 8: Europe and Canada commit €70 billion per year to Ukraine military support in 2026-2027, a total of €140 billion and the largest binding multi-year pledge since the full-scale invasion. The communique formally names China's nuclear build-up as a NATO concern alongside Russia, the first time China has appeared in a NATO summit document as a structural security factor rather than a footnote. Trump's bilateral with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa on July 7 was the first face-to-face meeting between a US president and Damascus since Assad's December 2024 ouster. Turkey's request for inclusion in the EU SAFE fund was acknowledged but not resolved; Erdogan secured a verbal signal from Trump on further KAAN engine cooperation and a promise of 'something that will make Erdogan very happy,' which Ankara is reading as a renewed F-35 pathway. ↗

2. 2026年7月7日 12:01Z

   On July 6, the day before the summit opened, China's navy fired its first submarine-launched ballistic missile since 1982: a long-range missile with a dummy warhead left the Bohai Sea at 12:01 p.m. Beijing time and landed west of the Solomon Islands in the South Pacific. Simultaneously, Beijing launched Joint Sea-2026 naval exercises with Russia. NATO Secretary General Rutte, speaking in Ankara, called the test 'further proof that we must not be naive.' US State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said China was doing 'the opposite' of nuclear non-proliferation at a time the US is working to prevent it. China's foreign ministry called the test 'planned annual military training.' Russia also struck Ukrainian cities the night before the summit opened, killing at least 20; Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Moscow would 'monitor all news and information coming out of Ankara' and described the Ukraine war as now 'a real war due to Western intervention.' Inside Turkey, authorities detained over 100 anti-NATO protesters in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir; Human Rights Watch documented over 200 total detentions of activists, lawyers and journalists under anti-terror laws. Opposition CHP chair Kilicdaroglu called the detentions unacceptable. Turkey's government also controlled journalist accreditations for the summit, drawing a press-freedom rebuke from NATO's own host-nation briefing. ↗

3. 2026年7月7日 07:09Z

   The NATO Ankara summit opened on July 7 with defence spending commitments and Ukraine aid as the headline agenda. Trump held his bilateral with Zelenskyy in Ankara; the White House described the meeting as focused on the path to a ceasefire. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, speaking in Ankara, said the alliance cannot be 'naive' about China's military might as it ramps up, marking one of the most direct China references in a NATO summit opening. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, attending as an IP4 invited partner, called for a 'defence industry partnership 2.0' with NATO, signalling Seoul's intent to deepen arms co-production arrangements beyond informal partner status. ↗

4. 2026年7月7日 04:32Z

   Iran struck three commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as Trump was arriving at the summit. The US responded with strikes against more than 80 Iranian targets and reimposed sanctions, the largest exchange since the January ceasefire. Trump, speaking at the summit, condemned NATO allies for insufficient support during the US-Iran war, sharpening the summit's internal tensions between Ukraine-focused and Iran-focused member-state agendas. Zelenskyy separately demanded NATO air defence commitments, calling Ukraine's air defences the most pressing summit deliverable. ↗

5. 2026年7月6日 06:00Z

   The White House confirmed Trump will hold bilateral meetings at Ankara on July 7-8 with Zelensky and, separately, Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, marking the first face-to-face meeting between Trump and Syria's new leader since Assad's December 2024 ouster. A senior US official said Trump 'feels a sense of urgency' to end the Ukraine war and intends to follow up directly with Putin after the Zelensky bilateral. Russia responded to Ukraine's July 4 St. Petersburg strike by launching a major retaliation overnight July 5-6, hitting airfields in the Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Chernihiv and Kyiv regions with Zircon hypersonic missiles and drones. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung will participate as an IP4 partner, his first major multilateral summit since winning the snap presidential election after Yoon's impeachment. ↗

6. 2026年7月5日

   South Korean President Lee Jae-myung confirmed attendance at the Ankara summit on July 7-8 as one of NATO's Indo-Pacific partner nations (IP4), making his first major multilateral summit appearance since winning the snap presidential election following Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment. Lee is scheduled to speak on the July 7 Defence Industry Forum on South Korea's defence-industrial capacity and to hold bilaterals with NATO Secretary General Rutte and US President Trump. He departs for a state visit to Mongolia from July 9-11.

7. 2026年7月4日 18:00Z

   The US State Department notified Congress of a $700 million sale of GE F110 turbofan engines for Turkey's domestically built KAAN multirole fighter. The deal was approved by the Trump administration and timed ahead of the Ankara summit as a concrete defence-industrial reward for Erdogan. Trump hinted at a further concession on F-35 reinstatement, saying he intended to do 'something that's going to make Erdogan very happy,' but Senate Foreign Relations chairman Jim Risch said F-35 access remains blocked under US law so long as Turkey retains the Russian S-400 system. Rutte had specifically asked allies to hold defence deals for announcements at the Ankara forum. Ukraine signed a 24.6-billion-krona (US$2.53 billion) contract with Sweden for 16 Saab JAS 39 Gripen E fighters; the deal was finalised June 30 in Kyiv, financed through the EU Ukraine Support Loan, with deliveries scheduled 2029-2030. Sweden will first donate 16 older Gripen C/D aircraft for pilot conversion training starting early 2027. ↗

8. 2026年7月4日 12:00Z

   NATO ambassadors approved final communique language on July 4 affirming an 'ironclad commitment' to collective defence under Article 5. The approved text commits members to pledge €70 billion (US$80 billion) in military assistance to Ukraine for 2026 and 'at least equivalent levels' in 2027. US News & World Report and Euronews confirmed the ambassador-level sign-off, removing uncertainty about whether Trump would allow the language. Ankara city authorities have barred large vehicles and public gatherings from July 5-10 in preparation for the summit. ↗

9. 2026年7月4日

   Ukrainska Pravda reported July 3 that the draft Ankara communique will formally label Russia a direct threat to Euro-Atlantic security and commit Europe and Canada to providing Ukraine with €70 billion in military support annually in 2026 and 2027, totalling €140 billion over two years. This would be the largest single binding commitment to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began. Separately, Trump confirmed he will attend July 7-8 and added that the summit will produce 'great results,' signalling he expects a significant defence-industrial announcement. The summit is now three days away. ↗

10. 2026年7月3日 06:00Z

    NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the Defence Industry Forum on July 7 (Day 1 of the summit) will see 'tens of billions of dollars' in new contracts, MOUs, and letters of intent signed, describing it as evidence of 'a defence industrial revolution.' Erdogan separately told German Chancellor Merz that Turkey is 'making efforts for the war between Russia and Ukraine to end with permanent peace' and working to restart negotiations, positioning Ankara as an indispensable mediator. ↗