Gallium

What it is

Gallium (atomic number 31) is a soft, silvery metal with no ore deposits of its own. It occurs in trace concentrations in bauxite and sphalerite (zinc ore) and is recovered exclusively as a byproduct of aluminum and zinc refining. China produces approximately 98% of global primary gallium, concentrated in Guangdong, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia provinces, where large alumina refineries and zinc smelters generate the streams from which gallium is extracted. Global primary production was approximately 550 metric tonnes in 2025; small volumes come from Russia, South Korea, and Ukraine. The US has had no primary production since the early 1990s.

The metal's value lies in two compound semiconductors. Gallium arsenide (GaAs) is used in radio-frequency integrated circuits, satellite communications, and high-efficiency solar cells. Gallium nitride (GaN) is used in high-power transistors for military AESA radar, electronic warfare systems, 5G base-station power amplifiers, and electric-vehicle fast-charging equipment. Neither compound has a near-term substitute: silicon cannot match GaAs and GaN performance at high frequencies and high power densities. The US Department of Defense uses gallium in more than 11,000 individual parts; CSIS found that roughly 85% of US defense supply chains with gallium include at least one Chinese supplier.

History

Gallium was predicted by Russian chemist Dmitri Mendeleev in 1871 and isolated by French chemist Paul-Emile Lecoq de Boisbaudran in 1875. GaAs semiconductor applications emerged commercially in the 1960s, with GaN technology following in the 1990s. The US operated primary gallium recovery facilities through the 1980s; the last domestic US primary production ended in the early 1990s as cheap Chinese output, a byproduct of China's fast-expanding alumina sector, made Western recovery facilities uneconomical.

China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) imposed export licensing requirements on gallium and germanium in July 2023, citing national security, in direct response to US, Japanese, and Dutch semiconductor equipment export restrictions targeting China. MOFCOM issued a functional ban on gallium exports to the US in December 2024. A November 2025 US-China trade-truce agreement, reached at APEC in Busan, suspended the US-specific ban until November 27, 2026, but left the global licensing regime intact.

Current state

As of mid-2026, the US has 100% net import reliance for gallium (USGS 2026 Mineral Commodity Summaries). Western spot gallium reached approximately US$2,269 per kilogram in June 2026, against a Chinese domestic price of approximately US$246 per kilogram, a nine-fold gap. Before China's 2023 controls, gallium traded at roughly US$220 per kilogram globally. The trade-truce suspension has not restored meaningful Chinese export volumes to Western buyers; global licensing delays make procurement planning unreliable.

Non-Chinese capacity is in early development. MTM Critical Metals is commissioning a scrap-based gallium recovery facility in Texas. Alcoa and South32 are evaluating gallium recovery at Western Australian alumina refineries, with the Australian government committing AU$200 million to the Wagerup project. Metlen (Greece) is targeting 50 metric tonnes of annual capacity by 2027. Rio Tinto is exploring 40 metric tonnes per year of capacity from its Quebec operations. None of these projects reaches commercial scale before 2027. The USGS modelled a total Chinese gallium embargo and estimated a potential US GDP impact of up to US$8 billion, concentrated in semiconductor and defence manufacturing.

Relationships

Gallium is structurally paired with germanium in China's export-control architecture: both listed in July 2023, both banned from US export in December 2024, both byproduct metals with no primary ore deposit and near-total Chinese supply concentration. These controls belong to China's broader critical-minerals strategy, which has also covered graphite, antimony, and rare earth magnets, each sequenced in response to Western semiconductor equipment restrictions. US-led efforts to build allied critical-mineral supply identify Australia, Canada, and southern Europe as the near-term non-Chinese sources most likely to reach commercial scale before 2030.

What to watch

• November 27, 2026: whether China's Ministry of Commerce reinstates or extends the US-specific gallium export ban when the trade-truce suspension expires.
• MTM Critical Metals (Texas) and Alcoa/South32 (Western Australia): commissioning schedules and actual gallium recovery volumes versus nameplate targets.
• US Congress: whether a gallium strategic reserve or production subsidy is authorised in the National Defense Authorization Act.
• Western spot price: whether new non-Chinese supply entry narrows the nine-fold East-West price gap before 2028.