Zinc

What it is

Zinc (symbol Zn, atomic number 30) is the fourth most consumed metal globally, after iron, aluminum and copper. Global refined zinc consumption reached approximately 13.8 million tonnes in 2024. About three-quarters goes to galvanizing steel against corrosion, used across construction, automotive manufacturing and infrastructure. The remainder divides between brass (a copper-zinc alloy), zinc die-cast alloys for automotive parts and consumer electronics, and zinc oxide for rubber vulcanization, ceramics and pharmaceuticals.

Key producers by mined output: China (roughly 34%), Peru, Australia, India and Mexico. Major companies include Glencore (operations in Australia, Peru and Kazakhstan), Teck Resources (Red Dog mine, Alaska, one of the world's largest zinc-lead deposits), Hindustan Zinc (Vedanta, India), Boliden (Sweden) and Nyrstar (Europe and Australia, owned by Trafigura). Korea Zinc (South Korea) is the largest smelter outside China, which itself accounts for roughly 48% of global zinc refining.

History

Modern industrial zinc scaled alongside the steel industry in the 19th century. Large mines commissioned in the 1990s and 2000s, including Red Dog in Alaska (1989), Antamina in Peru (2001) and Century in Australia (2000), expanded global concentrate supply significantly. In 2015-2016, Century closed after ore depletion and Glencore voluntarily curtailed roughly 500,000 tonnes of annual output, pushing the LME zinc price to US$3,600/t by early 2018.

China grew from a moderate producer in the 1990s to the world's dominant miner and refiner by the 2010s. By 2023, China produced approximately 4 million tonnes of mined zinc, around 34% of the global 12.3 million tonne total. Its refining share reached roughly 48%, concentrated in Hunan, Yunnan and Inner Mongolia provinces.

Current state

As of mid-2026, the zinc market is in deficit. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported a 19,000-tonne global deficit in the first two months of 2026, reversing a 46,000-tonne surplus in the same period of 2025. Grade depletion at Chinese legacy mines drove Chinese mine output down roughly 7% year on year in Q1 2026, turning China into a net zinc exporter for the first time in years, a structural shift documented in 中国2026年因国内矿山产量下降、冶炼厂追求出口利润而转为锌净出口国；伦敦金属交易所6月触及每吨3,608美元. LME zinc cash settled at US$3,608/t in June 2026, near the year-to-date high. Global reserves stand at approximately 220 million tonnes (USGS, 2023 data), equivalent to roughly 17 years at 2024 consumption rates.

Korea Zinc commissioned a secondary zinc recycling plant in Tennessee in February 2026 to process electric arc furnace dust from US steel recycling into approximately 30,000 tonnes per year of zinc-equivalent output, using US Inflation Reduction Act Section 45X manufacturing credits.

Relationships

Zinc demand broadly tracks steel-intensive construction and automotive output. China's real estate slowdown from 2021 onward has been the primary demand headwind, partially offset by growth in India and Southeast Asia. The metal sits downstream of lead mining, as many major deposits, including Red Dog, are co-mingled zinc-lead orebodies. Battery electric vehicles use galvanized steel bodies, broadly preserving per-vehicle zinc demand relative to internal combustion models.

Germanium, a byproduct of zinc smelting, connects zinc to semiconductor and defence supply chains. China has restricted germanium exports as a trade policy lever, and any broader restriction on zinc concentrate or refined metal would rapidly tighten Western markets, given limited spare smelting capacity outside China.

What to watch

• Chinese mine output in H2 2026: whether grade depletion continues or new openings provide partial offsets.
• ILZSG monthly deficit data: whether the early-2026 shortfall deepens toward the 150,000-200,000 tonne full-year range that commodity analysts project.
• Zinc concentrate treatment charges: compression in TC/RC terms would mirror the copper market trajectory of 2024-2025, squeezing Western smelter margins.
• Vedanta's Gamsberg Phase 2 in South Africa and any potential restart at Century mine in Australia: the most closely watched supply additions in the development pipeline.
• Export restriction risk on zinc or germanium from China, which the IEA's 2025 critical minerals outlook identifies as an escalating policy tool.