This beat tracks copper, aluminium, zinc and tin, whose mine disruptions and trade policy shifts signal the pace and cost of global electrification.
Critical industrial metal: China controls 57% of global smelting capacity, Guinea's bauxite dominance and Russia's Rusal sanctions keep aluminium supply chains under active geopolitical pressure in 2026.
full dossier ›Guinea holds the world's largest bauxite reserves and supplies roughly three-quarters of China's imports, making it a critical chokepoint in the global aluminium supply chain.
Russia's UC Rusal controls roughly 6% of global primary aluminium output and holds key European refining assets, making it central to EU sanctions and critical-minerals supply debates.
The June 2026 export cap arrives as bauxite prices sit 50% below early-2025 peaks; Axis International filed a $28.9B World Bank arbitration after permit revocation; 75% of China's bauxite imports originate in Guinea
A May 6 agreement definitively resolved GAC's suspension; CBG resumes bauxite supply to EGA's Al Taweelah alumina refinery; Guinea's Nimba Mining Company takes over the Sangarédi project assets
China's self-imposed 45Mt annual smelting ceiling will be reached by late 2026 on current ramp rates, limiting incremental supply; the EU cut Rusal's preferential import quota from 275,000t to 50,000t for February-December 2026; primary aluminium averaged $2,680/t on the LME in H1 2026