pending-decision Merz demands 'all or nothing' on a 33-point pension overhaul
A commission hands Germany a capital pillar and life-expectancy retirement ages; the SPD and unions revolt
Money Plumbing
Central banks, rates, FX, insurance and the pipes value moves through.
state of play
The Iran energy shock has reached monetary policy: the ECB raised rates 25bp in June, its first hike since 2023, lifting its 2026 inflation baseline to 3.0% while cutting growth forecasts — a stagflation bind. The move tracks oil more than demand, so the path depends on whether the energy premium keeps unwinding. Watch eurozone core inflation and whether other central banks follow.
tracking
Central banks
Fed1 pending-decisionEnd-of-term Supreme Court rulings loom against Trump on birthright and the Fed ECB1 activeECB raises rates on the Iran-driven energy shock, first hike since 2023 BoJ — quiet PBoC1 worseningXi holds the line: no big stimulus as China fights deflation and the Iran shock BoE — quiet RBI1 activeIndia's FY26 GDP prints at 7.7% — Modi's headline, the statisticians' puzzle SNB — quiet BoC — quiet BCB (Brazil) — quiet CBRT (Turkey) — quiet
Currencies & FX
Sovereign yields & bonds
Insurance & reinsurance
Payment rails & CBDCs
Banking stress
latest
The self-styled Beijing critic extends the active yuan swap tranche for 12 months as Washington presses Buenos Aires to cut financial ties
An oil-price shock, a corruption scandal in the free-meals programme and an unnerving inner circle drive a crisis of confidence in Jakarta
Saudi guest of honour, a US delegation back after a decade — and a president conceding 'risks of stagnation' while Ukrainian strikes shadow his hometown forum
Leaders agree the 2028–2034 MFF shape, roll Russia sanctions for 12 months, and start Ukraine accession talks
The first full year on a new 2022-23 base year shows the fastest-growing major economy, even as a rare rise in unemployment and an implausibly low deflator fuel a credibility debate
Q1 GDP shrank 3.3% from the Iran war, but the ceasefire sends the currency to a 1993 peak and ratings outlooks to stable — even as Smotrich fights a record defence budget
Insiders blame erratic, poorly communicated policy and an opaque advisory court; a Tony Robbins session at the palace becomes the symbol of the unease
A $33.5bn Q1 hole — most of the year's planned shortfall in one quarter — as military outlays jumped and Hormuz throttled oil exports despite high prices
Klingbeil defends ~€196bn in fresh debt as defence spending climbs toward €180bn by 2030
Trump insists 'no $300 billion payment to Iran by the US'; Vance says Arab states and investors will fund it — and no country has confirmed a cent as Iran's own bank warns of a 12-year rebuild
contested-result Merz calls the EU's next seven-year budget 'unaffordable'
After the June European Council, Berlin rejects the MFF proposal and floats Ukraine 'associate membership'
The flagship of Vision 2030 cuts its population target to 100,000 and faces a bigger bill to cancel contracts than to build, as Riyadh resets its megaproject
The CBE keeps rates on hold a second straight meeting and lifts its 2026 inflation forecast to 16-17% from 11%, blaming the regional conflict and an energy shock
Sheikh Tahnoon chairs a Q1 review of ADIA, Mubadala, L'Imad and ADNOC as the emirate steers wartime capital and builds a 'fourth pillar' fund
Sterling and gilts move only modestly on Starmer's exit — the real question is the spending rules
The deposit rate goes to 2.25% as war-driven oil prices push 2026 inflation projections to 3.0% amid stalling growth