Brent

A projectile hit the Ever Lovely's bridge at 14:10 UTC on June 25; US Central Command struck Iranian missile and radar sites in retaliation on June 26, Trump called it a "foolish violation" of the ceasefire MoU, and the IRGC denied involvement

Moscow's Kapotnya plant is offline until year-end; 17-plus regions face sales caps; Astana says no official request has arrived

Saudi Ras Tanura resumes tanker loadings for the first time since March; Brent is now 37% below its war peak

The benchmark settles below $70 and flips its curve structure for the first time since before the strait closed

Crude had fallen 40% from its wartime peak by June 25, then a projectile hit an Evergreen container ship in Hormuz and war-risk premiums snapped back

The Dubai M1–M3 spread collapses from ~$37 to ~$8/bbl as the war premium fades, but Aramco's lagging formula left July differentials high enough to push China's Saudi intake toward ~600,000 bpd

The benchmark hits its lowest since February as shipping recovers; the 9 June STEO had Brent averaging $105 in June–July on a closed strait, a forecast the 17 June ceasefire upended in days