The industrial recovery of lithium, cobalt, and nickel from spent EV batteries, now structurally mandated by EU law and the central supply-chain bet against dependence on new primary mining.
Hard-to-substitute transition metal driving EV batteries and stainless steel, with Indonesia controlling 60% of world mine supply and giving Jakarta decisive leverage over global manufacturing costs.
full dossier ›Lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite and manganese power every battery cell; their supply is highly concentrated, making these minerals the chokepoints of the global electric transition.
The carbon mineral at the core of every lithium-ion battery anode, where China controls 97% of global processing capacity and wields that position as an export-control lever.
The only commercial route from low-grade Indonesian laterite ore to battery-grade nickel, now structurally exposed by sulphuric acid import dependency and Jakarta's supply controls.
Indonesia holds 42% of global nickel reserves and produces roughly 60% of world supply, giving Jakarta decisive leverage over the EV battery supply chain.
Russia's largest mining company and the world's dominant palladium producer, whose Arctic ore bodies and sanctions exposure make it a structural variable in global critical-mineral supply chains.
A platinum-group metal supplying roughly 85% of gasoline-catalytic-converter demand globally; Russia's Nornickel controls 40% of world output, making palladium a geopolitically exposed critical mineral.
Brazil's Vale S.A. is the world's largest iron ore producer and a top-three nickel miner, central to critical-mineral supply chains and defined by two lethal dam collapses.
With RKAB approvals maxed out, the mid-year supplementary round becomes the whole market
The EU's 20th sanctions package closed one export channel but Global Witness found gaps; Q1 2026 palladium output fell 10-11%; Nornickel is negotiating a 2Mt/year copper concentrate JV with Xiamen C&D
Vale Base Metals reported record Q1 copper output and near-record nickel as it advances a joint venture with Glencore in the Sudbury Basin; $5.4-5.7 billion in capex is planned for 2026 as Vale pursues strategic separation of base metals from iron ore
The first EV battery recycling shakeout separated commercial-scale survivors from undercapitalised startups; Redwood Materials reached a $6 billion valuation, Germany's cylib raised €63.4 million, and EU Battery Passport compliance deadlines gave the sector a regulatory floor
The European Commission published its second CRMA Strategic Projects selection in March 2026, bringing the total to 94 projects; member states must issue permits within 24 months; the CRMA sets 2030 supply benchmarks requiring 10% domestic extraction and 40% EU processing
Jakarta's 2026 RKAB allocation of 270Mt (down from 379Mt) tightened feedstock; acid costs near $1,000/t and HPAL utilisation fell to 70-75%
The House-passed reconciliation bill terminates the IRA's wind production and investment credits for projects beginning after 2026, extends and modifies the 45X advanced manufacturing credit, bars FEOC-sourced material from 45X eligibility, and adds a new metallurgical coal credit; Senate outcome uncertain