rbtfl

The narrow channel between Iran and Oman's Musandam Peninsula is the world's single most critical oil shipping chokepoint, carrying roughly 20 million barrels per day, and its security status in 2026 became the defining variable in global energy markets.

full dossier ›
Iran said on August 8-9 that a bilateral deal with Oman defining new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz was in its 'final stages,' but Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on August 9 it would not reopen the strait until the United States paid war damage compensation and met other conditions; a US official told Reuters a deal was close, and the UAE reported a further ship attack in the waterway on August 8
How Wars Actually End ·12 takes ·Aug 10
Iran said on August 10 it was nearing a shipping-lane agreement with Oman but would only reopen the Strait of Hormuz after the United States met several specific conditions, beyond the war-damage compensation the IRGC had previously demanded; oil markets reacted with US benchmark crude rising back above US$82 as traders priced in the possibility the strait stays closed beyond earlier timelines
How Wars Actually End ·9 takes ·Aug 11
US President Donald Trump said on August 6 the war with Iran will end 'pretty soon'; Iran's parliament was reported to be reviewing the text of a Hormuz route agreement with Oman; NBC News reported both sides say a deal is close but one or both would have to make concessions; US officials said they would not accept any arrangement leaving Iran in control of the strait; Iran insisted it would not return to the pre-war status of an open international waterway
How Wars Actually End ·36 takes ·Aug 10
Iran's foreign ministry said on August 5 that Tehran and Oman reached an understanding on the precise geographic coordinates for a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, and that a joint announcement was being finalised; Al Jazeera reported talks were in 'final stages' and the route had been approved; Iran cautioned the agreement would not by itself guarantee security in the waterway, and said final announcement depended on certain third parties not interfering
How Wars Actually End ·36 takes ·Aug 10
A cargo vessel was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on August 4, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported; a senior Iranian source told Reuters that Iran is seeking full inbound inspection authority over ships entering the strait under a temporary reopening plan being negotiated with Oman; Qatar said mediators were making progress toward ending the US-Iran war while Iran denied Trump's claim that talks were already underway
How Wars Actually End ·13 takes ·Aug 7
US President Donald Trump said on August 3 that new diplomatic talks with Iran are the 'last chance' for Tehran to reach a deal before US strikes resume, naming Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar as mediators; US negotiators simultaneously said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is close as Iran and Oman held what Oman described as 'positive' talks; Iran's foreign ministry denied any direct negotiations with Washington
How Wars Actually End ·22 takes ·Aug 7
US officials told US media on August 1 that Washington and Israel are planning a new wave of strikes targeting Iran's energy infrastructure, potentially as soon as the weekend; Iran called the reported plan reckless and threatened symmetric retaliation against critical infrastructure in Israel and US regional energy facilities; US embassies across the Middle East advised nationals to consider departing
How Wars Actually End ·18 takes ·Aug 2
An unidentified drone struck two gas tankers at Egypt's Damietta port on July 30, Egypt's cabinet said; investigators found the cause was an unidentified drone that started a fire on board; Damietta lies near the Suez Canal, which had remained an alternative Saudi oil export route after Iran and its Houthi allies closed the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb to northbound traffic; the strike signals the conflict may be expanding to Egypt's Mediterranean coast
How Wars Actually End ·22 takes ·Jul 31
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi visited Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara on July 29, signing five cooperation agreements and discussing a plan for Iraq to supply Turkey with up to one million barrels of oil a day; Turkey's state oil company TPAO has taken a 15% equity stake in the Kirkuk oil field alongside BP, ending the terms of the 1973 Iraq-Turkey pipeline deal; the shift is driven by Turkey's need to reduce dependence on Gulf routes disrupted by the Iran-US war
The Quiet Shift ·4 takes ·Jul 30
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps launched at least four ballistic missiles at a US military facility in Jordan on the night of July 28-29; the US military said it intercepted the missiles; US and Saudi Arabia simultaneously struck Iran-backed militia headquarters in Iraq, killing at least 20 including six Iranian advisers, the first time Saudi Arabia has joined US offensive action in Iraq in this conflict; Iraq's government protested; Iran rejected Oman's Strait of Hormuz proposals and struck three ships in the waterway
How Wars Actually End ·59 takes ·Jul 31
Israel's military intercepted two drones near the Jordan border on July 27 and said the UAVs did not cross into Israeli territory; Israeli officials believed the drones were fired from Iraq; separately, Saudi Arabia intercepted drones launched from Iraq by Iran-backed militias, while Iran's foreign minister held talks on Strait of Hormuz security with Saudi and Omani counterparts
How Wars Actually End ·8 takes ·Jul 29
The US pause in strikes on Iran continued into its third day on July 27 as President Donald Trump said 'we are having good talks' and 'good things can happen'; Iran's Foreign Ministry denied any negotiations were taking place, declared that Iran 'will never allow the United States to determine the timing of war and peace,' and Gulf media reported Iranian officials describing US conduct as that of a 'mafia gang'
How Wars Actually End ·23 takes ·Jul 29
Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal on July 24 that Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi had carried to Tehran from Washington; Iranian officials said the proposal fails to address the question of control over the Strait of Hormuz, as US strikes continued for a 13th consecutive night and Trump threatened the largest bombardment yet if Iran refuses to negotiate
How Wars Actually End ·20 takes ·Jul 28
The United States launched new air strikes across Iran on July 24, 2026, targeting sites from the country's south to its north; Iran retaliated by striking US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Erbil; Iran's Health Ministry reported 55 dead and 629 injured in US strikes; Trump threatened a 'massive attack' if Iran refuses to negotiate and proposed using frozen Iranian assets to pay for maritime damages; Oman sent a delegation to Tehran to discuss Hormuz traffic management
How Wars Actually End ·9 takes ·Jul 29
Iran's military claimed on July 31 that it struck a US base in Kuwait with a drone, while President Donald Trump said he was losing faith in Iran and warned that fresh US strikes on Iran were coming as soon as the weekend; Kuwait confirmed it intercepted drone attacks; the exchange, coming days after a US-Iran ceasefire pause began, is the first confirmed military action by Iran against a US base since the ceasefire entered its third day on July 27.
How Wars Actually End ·3 takes ·Aug 2
The US military used B-1 Lancer heavy bombers against Iran on July 23, the first deployment of the aircraft in 12 days since fighting resumed, as Trump told Axios he is 'close to a decision' on an unprecedented 'massive attack' if Iran refuses to negotiate; US intelligence is separately probing whether Russia supplied targeting data for Iranian drone strikes on CIA facilities in Saudi Arabia and Iraq; the US House of Representatives passed a new troop-withdrawal resolution
How Wars Actually End ·34 takes ·Jul 29
Iranian state media reported a US missile strike on Larak Island at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz on July 22; Washington did not confirm the attack; the US deployed B-1 Lancer bombers against Iran for the first time since the war resumed; Trump warned of a 'massive attack' if Iran fails to negotiate and threatened to bomb bridges in Tehran; Defense Secretary Hegseth told US senators the conflict has cost US$37.5 billion
How Wars Actually End ·22 takes ·Jul 24
Tankers are turning back in the Red Sea after Yemen's Houthis threatened to enforce a blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb strait, while the Strait of Hormuz remains shut to commercial shipping as the US-Iran war continues; US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told senators the war has cost the United States US$37.5 billion so far, and Iranian forces have struck US military sites in the Gulf and Jordan
Whose Money ·44 takes ·Jul 29
The 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting convened in Manila on July 20 with US Secretary of State Rubio, China's Wang Yi and other major-power counterparts present; Southeast Asian ministers voiced serious concern over Middle East hostilities and called for safe, unimpeded passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while Myanmar's stalled peace process and South China Sea tensions also featured
Who Decides ·35 takes ·Jul 24
The US military completed its 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran on July 22 as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb were both reported closed; Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth disclosed the war has cost the Pentagon $37.5 billion; Iran's IRGC claimed it hit radar sites inside Kuwait; and Brent crude rose to near $95 per barrel as Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US would continue strikes while remaining open to negotiations
How Wars Actually End ·33 takes ·Jul 23
Iranian missiles and drones hit civilian infrastructure in Kuwait and Bahrain on July 19-20, including a fire at a Kuwait power plant; Jordan intercepted three Iranian missiles; CNN confirmed a third US service member was killed in the campaign on July 20, bringing total American combat deaths to three; Washington has said its main objective is keeping oil and gas flowing through the Strait of Hormuz; a German outlet cited an Iranian insider saying mediators are pushing a 10-day ceasefire
How Wars Actually End ·43 takes ·Jul 23
US CENTCOM struck the construction site of Iran's Darkhovin nuclear power plant in Khuzestan province on July 19 in retaliation for the deaths of two US soldiers in Jordan; Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation condemned the attack as a strike on a safeguarded peaceful nuclear facility, and the IRGC reported shooting down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone over Ahvaz
How Wars Actually End ·35 takes ·Jul 21
The US military struck road bridges connecting Bandar Abbas, Iran's main southern port, to Shiraz overnight July 17, the seventh consecutive night of bombing; Iran widened its retaliation to Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Jordan and Syria, including its first direct attack on a Syrian base in this conflict, while US President Donald Trump signalled openness to diplomacy
How Wars Actually End ·20 takes ·Jul 20
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared Operation Nasr 2 on July 15, claiming strikes on US military facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, and threatened to halt all energy exports from the Middle East if the US naval blockade continues; Brent crude rose above US$85 as the US reimposed its Hormuz blockade and redirected two commercial vessels
How Wars Actually End ·29 takes ·Jul 20
US President Donald Trump reversed his July 13 decision to impose a 20% levy on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz on July 14, announcing instead that Gulf states would make investment deals in the US, and declaring the strait open to all traffic except Iran; shipping companies and legal experts had called the toll plan legally baseless and economically counterproductive
Whose Money ·14 takes ·Jul 16
US President Donald Trump said on July 13 that the US would 'take out Pickaxe Mountain', the underground nuclear facility near Natanz, and announced a reinstatement of what he called an Iranian blockade through the [[strait-of-hormuz]]; earlier that day US forces had struck Iranian targets for the third consecutive day, [[irgc]] forces struck US military facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman in a third retaliatory wave, and Brent crude climbed above US$75 a barrel; Iran and Oman said they would continue political and technical talks on Hormuz management
How Wars Actually End ·30 takes ·Jul 15
Oman's Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Iranian Ambassador Mousa Farhang on July 12 and handed him a note of protest after Iranian drones struck facilities in Oman's Musandam and Al Wusta governorates; Iran separately reported new attacks on military targets on its largest island near the [[strait-of-hormuz]], which the [[irgc]] has again declared closed 'until the end of US interference'; a defence technology report said Iran's Zolfaghar ballistic missiles, guided by China's BeiDou-3 satellite system, are maintaining 98 percent accuracy despite US Patriot and THAAD jamming attempts, while both interceptor stockpiles are described as depleted
How Wars Actually End ·18 takes ·Jul 13
US President Donald Trump declared on July 13 that US forces would take out 'Pickaxe Mountain,' a heavily fortified underground nuclear complex near Iran's Natanz facility, saying a strike would come 'relatively soon'; the threat came during the third consecutive night of US strikes on Iran, as satellite imagery showed recent construction at the site and Iran's army struck a US naval vessel with cruise missiles
How Wars Actually End ·24 takes ·Jul 15
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all shipping on July 12, hours after fresh US airstrikes hit the Iranian port cities of Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Chabahar, Qeshm Island, Bushehr and Asaluyeh; Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Jordan and the UAE; three people were injured in Qatar by falling shrapnel; ceasefire talks in Muscat the previous day had ended without agreement; US envoys were headed back to Oman even as fighting intensified
How Wars Actually End ·46 takes ·Jul 20
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi led a delegation to Muscat on July 11 for talks with Omani officials centred on reopening the [[strait-of-hormuz]], even as US President Donald Trump had declared the June ceasefire 'over'; the US demanded [[iran|Iran]] publicly state that Hormuz is open and pledge to stop firing on commercial ships; analysts said the door to diplomacy remained open despite the exchange of attacks, while a pre-visit briefing noted Araghchi would hold Hormuz-specific talks with Oman
How Wars Actually End ·5 takes ·Jul 13
Senior US officials told reporters on July 10 that Washington is demanding Iran issue a public statement that all channels of the Strait of Hormuz are open to shipping and that Tehran will not attack transiting civilian vessels, with Axios reporting a Saturday (July 11) deadline; Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi flew to Oman on July 11 and issued a joint statement with Muscat committing to 'costs associated with navigation' rather than the toll-free passage the US demanded; Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in his first public statement that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz must remain a priority
Who Decides ·54 takes ·Jul 13
The United States launched new airstrikes against Iran early Thursday, and Tehran responded by targeting Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan, a crossfire that again threatened the June 2026 interim deal; the IRGC said it fired 10 missiles at Jordan's Al-Azraq military air base; NATO chief Mark Rutte called US attacks 'absolutely necessary' as Trump threatened a naval blockade and to 'take over' Kharg Island; both sides accused the other of violating the June memorandum of understanding
How Wars Actually End ·55 takes ·Jul 13
US Central Command launched additional airstrikes against Iran on July 8 to 'further degrade Iran's ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz'; military analysts described the new strikes as significantly stronger than the July 7 initial retaliation; Iran's IRGC escalated by targeting US Navy warships; the US reinstated oil sanctions
How Wars Actually End ·11 takes ·Jul 11
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a joint missile and drone operation on July 8 against US military sites at Bahrain's Bandar Salman base and Kuwait's Ali Al Salem Air Base, claiming 85 installations targeted; a Qatari LNG vessel, the Al-Rekayyat, was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Qatar to hold Iran legally responsible
How Wars Actually End ·8 takes ·Jul 11
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone strikes on US military positions in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman early on July 13, the third exchange of attacks between Iran and the US in one week; US President Trump announced he was reinstating what he called an 'Iranian blockade' and said the US would act as 'Guardian of Hormuz' with a 20% toll
How Wars Actually End ·13 takes ·Jul 15
Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Jordan and the UAE on July 12, expanding beyond the four states it struck earlier in the day, after the US carried out a third round of airstrikes against Iranian targets in retaliation for attacks on commercial shipping; Qatar's military intercepted incoming Iranian fire and three people were injured by shrapnel in Doha; the UAE said missiles fired at Gulf states did not enter its territory; the [[strait-of-hormuz]], formally closed by the [[irgc]] earlier the same day, was physically open to traffic but shipping was warned of a severe threat level
How Wars Actually End ·41 takes ·Jul 15
The North Sea crude benchmark used to price roughly 80% of globally traded oil, underpinning government budgets, inflation, and energy security calculations worldwide.
·3 takes ·Jul 3
South Africa's rocky southern cape where the Atlantic meets the Indian Ocean, the primary bypass route when Suez or Hormuz close, carrying 11% of global seaborne oil.
·4 takes ·Jul 3
The Arabian Gulf crude benchmark used by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq to price roughly 12-14 million barrels per day of oil exports to Asia.
·3 takes ·Jul 3
Hamburg-based Hapag-Lloyd AG is Germany's largest container line and the world's fifth-largest, whose fleet routing decisions at Suez and Hormuz transmit directly into global freight costs.
·4 takes ·Jul 3
The Islamic Republic of Iran controls the northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz and holds the world's second-largest natural gas reserves and third-largest proven oil reserves, placing it at the center of Middle East conflict, global energy markets, and US-led sanctions regimes.
·4 takes ·Jul 3
The world's largest container carrier by fleet capacity, privately held in Geneva, Switzerland, and a bellwether for how chokepoint crises transmit into global freight costs.
·4 takes ·Jul 3
The fiber-optic cables on the world's seabeds carry over 99% of international internet traffic, and concentrated chokepoints in the Red Sea, Hormuz, and Taiwan Strait face rising deliberate disruption.
·4 takes ·Jul 3
Spot freight rates for the supertankers that move Persian Gulf crude in 2-million-barrel loads, the market signal that fastest reflects sanctions, war-risk, and chokepoint closures.
·4 takes ·Jul 3
The additional charges ship owners pay to insure vessels transiting conflict zones, and the London market's real-time signal for how insurers price the threat of war at sea.
·4 takes ·Jul 3

The briefing, by email