Ukrainian drones struck the Slavneft-Yanos oil refinery in Yaroslavl on the night of August 5-6, 2026, setting fires at one of Russia's five largest fuel processing plants located more than 700 kilometres from Ukraine's border; Zelensky confirmed the operation, saying the refineries fund Russia's war; a second refinery in Bashkortostan and a Wildberries logistics warehouse in Tver were also struck; Yaroslavl governor Mikhail Evraev announced traffic restrictions and described it as the largest-ever drone attack on the region; drones were also tracked heading toward Moscow
Russia's exported petroleum blends, primarily Urals, fund roughly one-third of Russia's federal budget and are the primary target of G7 and EU oil sanctions since 2022.
full dossier ›Russian crude oil refining averaged 3.6 million barrels per day in July 2026, the lowest since May 2002, Bloomberg data showed via Meduza; Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries and tankers drove the drop; at the same time Russia's federal budget deficit exceeded its full-year legal ceiling in just six months, large companies began cutting investment despite Putin's calls for a spending surge, and monthly company closures tripled to 12-15 thousand
Russia enacted a ban on diesel exports on July 8, 2026, after Ukrainian drone strikes on Saratov, Tatarstan and other facilities strained domestic fuel supply; at least two people were killed in the attacks and one tanker was hit in Taganrog Bay
India is on track to import 2.35 million barrels per day of Russian crude in June 2026, topping the May 2023 record, as the Strait of Hormuz disruption forces refiners to replace Gulf supply with Russian barrels at a $4-$5/bbl discount; the US sanctions waiver on Russian seaborne oil sales lapsed June 17 without renewal
Brent settled at $71.99 on June 26, its lowest since late February, before war-risk buyers stepped in after IRGC drone strikes on Bahrain and a second Hormuz tanker hit on June 27
Three benchmark grades, one production cartel, US shale, and a US strategic reserve together set the oil price that drives inflation, trade balances and geopolitics.
The multi-jurisdictional package of US, EU, and G7 financial, trade, and personal restrictions targeting Russia following its February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Drone strikes on refineries trigger the worst fuel shortage on the Black Sea peninsula since 2014; the Kremlin and independent press describe it in opposite terms
January's automatic mechanism keeps the cap 15% under a trailing Urals average; with the grade already below $40 at points, the cap now chases the market down rather than setting it
Novak floats halting diesel exports and importing gasoline after strikes knock out 40% of Moscow's fuel supply; product exports down ~15%
With Urals near $40 the deficit forecast balloons toward ~3% of GDP or worse; one estimate sees a $25–30bn revenue shortfall, the lowest monthly oil tax take since 2022