US President Donald Trump said on August 2 that he had agreed to cancel a planned strike on Iran, subject to a rapid deal, after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called to caution him against fresh attacks; Iran's top diplomat had earlier warned of a decisive response to any US-Israeli aggression

US President Donald Trump said on August 6 the war with Iran will end 'pretty soon'; Iran's parliament was reported to be reviewing the text of a Hormuz route agreement with Oman; NBC News reported both sides say a deal is close but one or both would have to make concessions; US officials said they would not accept any arrangement leaving Iran in control of the strait; Iran insisted it would not return to the pre-war status of an open international waterway

Yemen's Houthi movement fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia on August 6-7, wounding 11 civilians, while separate Houthi missile and drone strikes on Yemeni government forces killed at least 58 troops, the deadliest attacks in years; Al Jazeera said Saudi Arabia had braced for attacks and that tensions between the Houthis and the kingdom had risen since the US-Israel war on Iran began; SCMP called it one of the deadliest escalations since a Houthi truce with the Saudi-backed government

A cargo vessel was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on August 4, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported; a senior Iranian source told Reuters that Iran is seeking full inbound inspection authority over ships entering the strait under a temporary reopening plan being negotiated with Oman; Qatar said mediators were making progress toward ending the US-Iran war while Iran denied Trump's claim that talks were already underway

Iran's foreign ministry said on August 5 that Tehran and Oman reached an understanding on the precise geographic coordinates for a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, and that a joint announcement was being finalised; Al Jazeera reported talks were in 'final stages' and the route had been approved; Iran cautioned the agreement would not by itself guarantee security in the waterway, and said final announcement depended on certain third parties not interfering

Pakistan and Iran held trade talks in Islamabad on August 4, reaffirming a target of US$10 billion in bilateral trade and saying the Pakistan-Iran Free Trade Agreement is progressing toward conclusion; Iran proposed expanding logistics through Pakistan's Karachi and Gwadar ports; Pakistan's National Assembly Speaker Ayaz Sadiq invited Iran's parliament speaker Bagher Ghalibaf to visit Islamabad

US President Donald Trump said on August 3 that new diplomatic talks with Iran are the 'last chance' for Tehran to reach a deal before US strikes resume, naming Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar as mediators; US negotiators simultaneously said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is close as Iran and Oman held what Oman described as 'positive' talks; Iran's foreign ministry denied any direct negotiations with Washington

UK energy group BP reported Q2 2026 net profit exceeding US$5 billion, more than double the year-ago figure, as oil trading and refining margins surged on the back of the Iran-war-driven oil price rally; BP raised its quarterly dividend by 4% and projected 2026 capital expenditure at US$14 billion; US President Donald Trump publicly criticised Big Oil companies for making 'too much money'

The OPEC+ producer alliance agreed on August 2 to add another 188,000 barrels per day in September, completing the rollback of the voluntary cuts it imposed in 2023; the group then plans a three-month halt to further increases, pending a capacity review; war-related export disruptions in Iran and Ukraine have blunted each hike's market impact this year

US officials told US media on August 1 that Washington and Israel are planning a new wave of strikes targeting Iran's energy infrastructure, potentially as soon as the weekend; Iran called the reported plan reckless and threatened symmetric retaliation against critical infrastructure in Israel and US regional energy facilities; US embassies across the Middle East advised nationals to consider departing

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps launched attacks on US military bases and strategic assets in Kuwait and Bahrain on July 31, 2026, saying the strikes were retaliation for US strikes on multiple locations in Iran including Qeshm island the previous day; US President Donald Trump said he was 'losing faith' with Iran but did not rule out a deal

Pakistan's Foreign Office said on July 30 it is making its 'utmost' effort to return the US and Iran to negotiations under the Islamabad MoU ceasefire framework; the FO urged both sides to exercise maximum restraint and resume technical-level talks; the statement came as fresh US and Saudi strikes in the region added to pressure on the June 2026 ceasefire agreement

An unidentified drone struck two gas tankers at Egypt's Damietta port on July 30, Egypt's cabinet said; investigators found the cause was an unidentified drone that started a fire on board; Damietta lies near the Suez Canal, which had remained an alternative Saudi oil export route after Iran and its Houthi allies closed the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb to northbound traffic; the strike signals the conflict may be expanding to Egypt's Mediterranean coast

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps launched at least four ballistic missiles at a US military facility in Jordan on the night of July 28-29; the US military said it intercepted the missiles; US and Saudi Arabia simultaneously struck Iran-backed militia headquarters in Iraq, killing at least 20 including six Iranian advisers, the first time Saudi Arabia has joined US offensive action in Iraq in this conflict; Iraq's government protested; Iran rejected Oman's Strait of Hormuz proposals and struck three ships in the waterway

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington for a meeting with US President Donald Trump on July 28, their first bilateral since the joint US-Israel war against Iran; the meeting comes with strains in the relationship over Gaza, Iran's future, and Israel's post-war position, and Netanyahu is travelling under reported Iranian security threat

Israel's military intercepted two drones near the Jordan border on July 27 and said the UAVs did not cross into Israeli territory; Israeli officials believed the drones were fired from Iraq; separately, Saudi Arabia intercepted drones launched from Iraq by Iran-backed militias, while Iran's foreign minister held talks on Strait of Hormuz security with Saudi and Omani counterparts

The US pause in strikes on Iran continued into its third day on July 27 as President Donald Trump said 'we are having good talks' and 'good things can happen'; Iran's Foreign Ministry denied any negotiations were taking place, declared that Iran 'will never allow the United States to determine the timing of war and peace,' and Gulf media reported Iranian officials describing US conduct as that of a 'mafia gang'

Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheikh Jarrah Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah arrived in Islamabad on July 28 for a two-day official visit to meet Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar; Pakistan's Foreign Office said the visit will cover bilateral cooperation and regional matters, with the backdrop of Iran's recent strikes on Kuwait and other Gulf states elevating the agenda

Merged into [[iran-jordan-missiles-0729]], which covers the full July 28-29 escalation night including the IRGC Jordan missile strike and the US-Saudi Iraq militia strikes as a single event.

The US Defense Department updated its war casualty database on July 26, recording more than 600 wounded service members since the war with Iran began in February; the 'quiet' update, which also restored four soldiers previously omitted, has prompted questions about how the US military reports the human cost of the conflict

Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal on July 24 that Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi had carried to Tehran from Washington; Iranian officials said the proposal fails to address the question of control over the Strait of Hormuz, as US strikes continued for a 13th consecutive night and Trump threatened the largest bombardment yet if Iran refuses to negotiate

The United States launched new air strikes across Iran on July 24, 2026, targeting sites from the country's south to its north; Iran retaliated by striking US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Erbil; Iran's Health Ministry reported 55 dead and 629 injured in US strikes; Trump threatened a 'massive attack' if Iran refuses to negotiate and proposed using frozen Iranian assets to pay for maritime damages; Oman sent a delegation to Tehran to discuss Hormuz traffic management

Brent crude oil topped US$100 per barrel on July 23, 2026, as Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal and US-Iran strikes continued; Goldman Sachs warned the next stop could be US$120; Spain and Italy moved to plan emergency fuel-cost measures; Brent pulled back below US$100 on July 24 as European markets stabilized

Iran declared the UK's RAF Fairford air base a 'legitimate military target' on July 23-24, citing its use by US B-1 Lancer bombers in strikes on Iranian territory; the British government said it was 'ready to keep the UK safe' and electronic warfare aircraft arrived at Fairford, marking the first explicit Iranian threat against a NATO ally's military base in the current conflict

Iran's military claimed on July 31 that it struck a US base in Kuwait with a drone, while President Donald Trump said he was losing faith in Iran and warned that fresh US strikes on Iran were coming as soon as the weekend; Kuwait confirmed it intercepted drone attacks; the exchange, coming days after a US-Iran ceasefire pause began, is the first confirmed military action by Iran against a US base since the ceasefire entered its third day on July 27.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi traveled to Tehran on July 23 for his first official visit to Iran since taking office, holding expanded talks with senior Iranian officials, signing four cooperation documents, and publicly stating Iraq will not allow its territory to be used to threaten Iran; the trip followed al-Zaidi's July 14 meeting with US President Trump in Washington

The US military used B-1 Lancer heavy bombers against Iran on July 23, the first deployment of the aircraft in 12 days since fighting resumed, as Trump told Axios he is 'close to a decision' on an unprecedented 'massive attack' if Iran refuses to negotiate; US intelligence is separately probing whether Russia supplied targeting data for Iranian drone strikes on CIA facilities in Saudi Arabia and Iraq; the US House of Representatives passed a new troop-withdrawal resolution

Kuwait's Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Abdullah Ali Al-Sabah arrived in Pakistan on July 28 for a two-day visit to hold talks with Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar; the visit comes in the backdrop of resumed Iranian hostilities in which Iran struck Kuwait and other Gulf Cooperation Council states, and covers bilateral ties alongside regional developments

Houthi forces struck two Saudi-owned oil tankers in the Red Sea on July 22-23, the first confirmed attacks on Saudi vessels since the naval blockade declaration of July 20; the ENCELIA vessel caught fire, crew safe; Brent crude crossed US$100 per barrel for the first time since May; US President Trump threatened major military punishment for Iran and the Houthis

The Japanese yen fell to 163 per US dollar on July 22, its weakest level in roughly 39 years, as Iran war tensions pushed dollar demand higher alongside a Brent crude surge above US$92 per barrel; Tokyo intervention talk mounted as the yen steadied slightly through the day

Iranian state media reported a US missile strike on Larak Island at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz on July 22; Washington did not confirm the attack; the US deployed B-1 Lancer bombers against Iran for the first time since the war resumed; Trump warned of a 'massive attack' if Iran fails to negotiate and threatened to bomb bridges in Tehran; Defense Secretary Hegseth told US senators the conflict has cost US$37.5 billion

Tankers are turning back in the Red Sea after Yemen's Houthis threatened to enforce a blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb strait, while the Strait of Hormuz remains shut to commercial shipping as the US-Iran war continues; US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told senators the war has cost the United States US$37.5 billion so far, and Iranian forces have struck US military sites in the Gulf and Jordan

Hezbollah's deputy political chief Mahmoud Qamati threatened on July 21-22 to prevent aircraft from landing at Beirut's Rafik Hariri International Airport if Lebanon's government continued barring Iranian flights, opening a new confrontation with the Lebanese state and signalling opposition to any indirect talks framework with Israel

The 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting convened in Manila on July 20 with US Secretary of State Rubio, China's Wang Yi and other major-power counterparts present; Southeast Asian ministers voiced serious concern over Middle East hostilities and called for safe, unimpeded passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while Myanmar's stalled peace process and South China Sea tensions also featured

The US military completed its 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran on July 22 as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb were both reported closed; Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth disclosed the war has cost the Pentagon $37.5 billion; Iran's IRGC claimed it hit radar sites inside Kuwait; and Brent crude rose to near $95 per barrel as Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US would continue strikes while remaining open to negotiations

Air France on July 20 extended its Beirut flight suspension through August 2 and announced a temporary halt to flights to Dubai, UAE, and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, citing the regional security situation and evolving airspace restrictions linked to the US-Iran conflict

Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on July 20 at the head of a delegation, scheduled to meet Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Defence Forces General Syed Asim Munir; Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said he hoped the visit would bring 'positive developments' on the regional situation

Iranian missiles and drones hit civilian infrastructure in Kuwait and Bahrain on July 19-20, including a fire at a Kuwait power plant; Jordan intercepted three Iranian missiles; CNN confirmed a third US service member was killed in the campaign on July 20, bringing total American combat deaths to three; Washington has said its main objective is keeping oil and gas flowing through the Strait of Hormuz; a German outlet cited an Iranian insider saying mediators are pushing a 10-day ceasefire

The Houthi group declared an immediate maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia on July 20, citing what it called an unjust Saudi siege on Yemen, a move that analysts say threatens Saudi oil export routes and draws the Houthi conflict closer to the global energy market

US CENTCOM struck the construction site of Iran's Darkhovin nuclear power plant in Khuzestan province on July 19 in retaliation for the deaths of two US soldiers in Jordan; Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation condemned the attack as a strike on a safeguarded peaceful nuclear facility, and the IRGC reported shooting down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone over Ahvaz

A US airstrike on a drinking-water desalination facility in Jask, Hormozgan Province, has left roughly 10,000 people without water, provincial officials said, marking the first reported US strike on Iranian civilian water infrastructure in the current conflict

Jordan's Armed Forces intercepted 10 Iranian missiles on July 18, the latest in a wave of 240-plus projectiles fired at Jordanian territory since February; two US troops died on Jordanian soil a day earlier, but Jordan's Foreign Ministry omitted Jordan from its own list of Iranian-attacked countries

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi announced on July 18 that Iran has suspended all commitments under the 14-point memorandum of understanding with the US, accusing Washington of interpreting the agreement contrary to its terms and continuing strikes on Iranian infrastructure

The Trump administration told Israel on July 17 it would deploy dozens of additional aerial refueling aircraft in coming days, with the first ten arriving Friday and Saturday at Israeli Air Force bases rather than Ben Gurion Airport; the deployment signals preparation for a possible wider air campaign targeting Iranian power infrastructure and the suspected Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site

Iran's IRGC struck a Kuwait Petroleum Corporation oil site with reported injuries and hit a second Kuwaiti power and water plant early July 18, as Bahrain sounded air-raid sirens and Iran formally declared the MoU ceasefire agreement dead and expanded its target list to include a Saudi base and Kuwait water infrastructure

Iran's IRGC struck Muwaffaq Salti airbase in Jordan on July 18 with ballistic missiles and drones, killing two US service members, wounding four, and leaving one missing in action, US Central Command confirmed, the first American combat fatalities in the US-Iran war since March.

The US military struck road bridges connecting Bandar Abbas, Iran's main southern port, to Shiraz overnight July 17, the seventh consecutive night of bombing; Iran widened its retaliation to Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Jordan and Syria, including its first direct attack on a Syrian base in this conflict, while US President Donald Trump signalled openness to diplomacy

Iran's army announced on July 16 that it had targeted US military installations across three countries, Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, in retaliation for a new US strike wave that included the first US attack on targets near Tehran in the current conflict

International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned on July 17 that oil markets are 'nervous' and the world should be 'worried' if US-Iran efforts to restore Hormuz flows do not succeed in the near term

India's Directorate General of Merchant Marine Affairs ordered ship owners and recruitment agencies on July 16 not to deploy Indian nationals on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, citing the deaths of at least two Indian seafarers and three more feared dead after Iranian attacks on international shipping in recent days

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared Operation Nasr 2 on July 15, claiming strikes on US military facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, and threatened to halt all energy exports from the Middle East if the US naval blockade continues; Brent crude rose above US$85 as the US reimposed its Hormuz blockade and redirected two commercial vessels

US President Donald Trump reversed his July 13 decision to impose a 20% levy on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz on July 14, announcing instead that Gulf states would make investment deals in the US, and declaring the strait open to all traffic except Iran; shipping companies and legal experts had called the toll plan legally baseless and economically counterproductive

US forces hit Bushehr on July 15 and reimposed a naval blockade on Iran while Kuwait and Bahrain confirmed intercepting a new wave of Iranian aerial attacks, widening the Gulf confrontation beyond the Strait of Hormuz

US President Donald Trump on July 13 reimposed a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and declared a 20% levy on all commercial cargo passing through the strait, calling the US the 'Guardian of the Strait'; ABC News reports the move erases the last concession in the preliminary Iran-US peace deal and inverts Iran's own earlier toll demands

Kuwait's air defences intercepted 33 drones and six missiles in a July 14 Iranian salvo that struck one navy vessel; Bahrain sounded air raid sirens as the Iran-US conflict widened across the Gulf

US forces carried out a third consecutive night of strikes across a broad swath of Iran early on July 14, US officials said, as Tehran struck back against international shipping and US allies in the Persian Gulf; CNN's live feed confirmed the strikes, which coincide with US President Donald Trump's reimposition of a naval blockade and a 20% Hormuz shipping levy

Brent crude rose as much as 5% in early trading on July 13, 2026 as US and Iranian forces exchanged strikes; global stock markets fell, led by chip company shares including SK Hynix, and US President Trump's announcement of reinstating an 'Iranian blockade' through the Strait of Hormuz amplified oil-price moves

US President Donald Trump said on July 13 that the US would 'take out Pickaxe Mountain', the underground nuclear facility near Natanz, and announced a reinstatement of what he called an Iranian blockade through the [[strait-of-hormuz]]; earlier that day US forces had struck Iranian targets for the third consecutive day, [[irgc]] forces struck US military facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman in a third retaliatory wave, and Brent crude climbed above US$75 a barrel; Iran and Oman said they would continue political and technical talks on Hormuz management

Iranian missiles struck two UAE-flagged oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz on July 14, killing one Indian crew member and injuring up to ten others among 46 crew, prompting New Delhi to summon the Iranian diplomat in its strongest public rebuke of Tehran's Hormuz campaign

Yemen's Houthi forces fired on Abha airport in southwestern Saudi Arabia in what they described as retaliation for the Arab Coalition's strike on Sanaa airport, the coalition said it intercepted the attack and no airline disruptions were confirmed

US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday July 13 that he would deliver a primetime 'Speech to the Nation' on Thursday July 17 at 9 p.m. Eastern; no subject was disclosed and the White House gave no details, but the announcement comes as US military forces conduct a third consecutive night of strikes on Iran

Oman's Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Iranian Ambassador Mousa Farhang on July 12 and handed him a note of protest after Iranian drones struck facilities in Oman's Musandam and Al Wusta governorates; Iran separately reported new attacks on military targets on its largest island near the [[strait-of-hormuz]], which the [[irgc]] has again declared closed 'until the end of US interference'; a defence technology report said Iran's Zolfaghar ballistic missiles, guided by China's BeiDou-3 satellite system, are maintaining 98 percent accuracy despite US Patriot and THAAD jamming attempts, while both interceptor stockpiles are described as depleted

US President Donald Trump declared on July 13 that US forces would take out 'Pickaxe Mountain,' a heavily fortified underground nuclear complex near Iran's Natanz facility, saying a strike would come 'relatively soon'; the threat came during the third consecutive night of US strikes on Iran, as satellite imagery showed recent construction at the site and Iran's army struck a US naval vessel with cruise missiles

Yemen's internationally recognised government said on July 13 it struck the runway at Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport to prevent an Iranian aircraft from landing; the Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of the strike and fired missiles at southern Saudi Arabia in retaliation, breaking the 2022 ceasefire between the two sides; Saudi Arabia said it intercepted the missiles; the UN warned Yemen risks full-scale conflict

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all shipping on July 12, hours after fresh US airstrikes hit the Iranian port cities of Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Chabahar, Qeshm Island, Bushehr and Asaluyeh; Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Jordan and the UAE; three people were injured in Qatar by falling shrapnel; ceasefire talks in Muscat the previous day had ended without agreement; US envoys were headed back to Oman even as fighting intensified

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi led a delegation to Muscat on July 11 for talks with Omani officials centred on reopening the [[strait-of-hormuz]], even as US President Donald Trump had declared the June ceasefire 'over'; the US demanded [[iran|Iran]] publicly state that Hormuz is open and pledge to stop firing on commercial ships; analysts said the door to diplomacy remained open despite the exchange of attacks, while a pre-visit briefing noted Araghchi would hold Hormuz-specific talks with Oman

Senior US officials told reporters on July 10 that Washington is demanding Iran issue a public statement that all channels of the Strait of Hormuz are open to shipping and that Tehran will not attack transiting civilian vessels, with Axios reporting a Saturday (July 11) deadline; Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi flew to Oman on July 11 and issued a joint statement with Muscat committing to 'costs associated with navigation' rather than the toll-free passage the US demanded; Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in his first public statement that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz must remain a priority

The United States launched new airstrikes against Iran early Thursday, and Tehran responded by targeting Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan, a crossfire that again threatened the June 2026 interim deal; the IRGC said it fired 10 missiles at Jordan's Al-Azraq military air base; NATO chief Mark Rutte called US attacks 'absolutely necessary' as Trump threatened a naval blockade and to 'take over' Kharg Island; both sides accused the other of violating the June memorandum of understanding

US Central Command launched additional airstrikes against Iran on July 8 to 'further degrade Iran's ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz'; military analysts described the new strikes as significantly stronger than the July 7 initial retaliation; Iran's IRGC escalated by targeting US Navy warships; the US reinstated oil sanctions

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a joint missile and drone operation on July 8 against US military sites at Bahrain's Bandar Salman base and Kuwait's Ali Al Salem Air Base, claiming 85 installations targeted; a Qatari LNG vessel, the Al-Rekayyat, was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Qatar to hold Iran legally responsible

US President Donald Trump said at the NATO summit in Ankara on July 8 that the June 2026 memorandum to end the Iran war is 'over' and dealing with Tehran a 'waste of time'; Trump threatened to hit Iran 'very hard again tonight' and to target infrastructure; Iran responded by threatening a complete halt to nuclear talks

Iran interred assassinated Supreme Leader [[ali-khamenei]] in his birthplace of Mashhad on July 9 after week-long funeral processions through Tehran and Qom; crowds at the burial chanted slogans demanding revenge on US President Donald Trump for Khamenei's killing; CNN and others reported that many Iranians remained indifferent and notable public figures were absent.

Iranian forces hit three commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz on July 7, including Qatar's Al-Rekayyat tanker; the US launched retaliatory airstrikes; Iran then claimed strikes on 85 military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait; US President Trump declared the June MoU 'over'

Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared publicly since February 28; his three brothers prayed at the coffin in Tehran as Israeli threats and reported injuries kept him away from the largest state funeral in Iran's history

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone strikes on US military positions in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman early on July 13, the third exchange of attacks between Iran and the US in one week; US President Trump announced he was reinstating what he called an 'Iranian blockade' and said the US would act as 'Guardian of Hormuz' with a 20% toll

An Axios exclusive on July 4 reported Trump said the Israeli PM requested a US visit for as early as the following week; the two leaders agreed on a July 3 phone call; Lebanon operations, Iran nuclear talks and Gaza are on the agenda for their first meeting since Israel's war with Iran

Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Jordan and the UAE on July 12, expanding beyond the four states it struck earlier in the day, after the US carried out a third round of airstrikes against Iranian targets in retaliation for attacks on commercial shipping; Qatar's military intercepted incoming Iranian fire and three people were injured by shrapnel in Doha; the UAE said missiles fired at Gulf states did not enter its territory; the [[strait-of-hormuz]], formally closed by the [[irgc]] earlier the same day, was physically open to traffic but shipping was warned of a severe threat level

Seven core OPEC+ members meet virtually on Sunday July 5 to approve a fifth straight 188,000-barrel-per-day increase for August; Brent crude has fallen to its lowest level since Iran's February closure of the Strait of Hormuz

Turkey's president and Pakistan's prime minister met at the Vahdettin Mansion on July 4, reaffirming strategic alignment on the Iran ceasefire, pledging a US$5 billion bilateral trade target and expanding defence and logistics cooperation

Traffic through the Strait reached roughly 32-42% of pre-war normal by early July; Morgan Stanley cut oil forecasts twice in two weeks, citing a supply overhang as Middle Eastern crude floods back into a market weakened by Chinese demand softness

The largest US-Iran exchange since the January ceasefire erupted as Trump arrived at the NATO summit; Guardian Council begins succession proceedings today with Khamenei's burial in Mashhad; the July 11 Doha round is now the line between de-escalation and a new war

Brent is on track for a 30% Q2 decline, WTI for 24%, both the largest falls since Q2 2020; a flood of Gulf barrels pent up during the war is rejoining world supply as every tentative peace signal drives another leg down

Pakistan's PM will press Iran and Turkey on implementing the June 17 Islamabad MoU framework; Islamabad brokered the April talks where the first direct US-Iran engagement occurred and maintains a dedicated contact channel between Washington and Tehran

India confirmed on June 29 that Bihar Governor Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain and Minister of State for External Affairs Pabitra Margherita will represent New Delhi at the state funeral of assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, scheduled across Tehran, Qom, Mashhad and Iraq from July 4-9; Pakistan PM Sharif and delegations from Russia, China and several Central Asian states are expected to attend.

Adm. Brad Cooper met Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and army chief Gen. Rodolphe Haykal on June 29 to set the sequencing for Israeli withdrawal from two southern 'pilot' zones; Hezbollah's leader the same day called the US-brokered framework 'null and void'

Spot gold ended the June 30 Asian session near $3,942, a year-to-date low, and will close Q2 roughly 14% lower, erasing its entire 2026 gain, as Fed rate-hike expectations and a cooling Iran ceasefire reversed the safe-haven bid that pushed gold to $5,598 in January.

Gunmen killed Khalid Khalidi and Borhan Khorisani outside their home in Paveh, Kermanshah province, on Monday evening; Xore Heva, meaning Sun of Hope, said it struck to avenge state repression that followed Mahsa Amini's 2022 death in custody

Israel's National Cyber Directorate chief Yossi Karadi told Die Welt on June 29 that hostile cyber incidents rose from 1,600 in June 2025 to 4,800 in June 2026, targeting critical infrastructure, mid-sized firms, and the public; there is 'no ceasefire in cyberspace'

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced June 29 that Emirati citizens may travel to Lebanon, ending a ban imposed April 30 amid the Iran war; the ban on Iran remains, and Tawajudi registration is mandatory for all Lebanese-bound travelers

Flight IS 7352 touched down at Dubai International's Terminal 2 at 13:18 local time on Monday, opening a route that had been severed since hostilities began; UAE carriers have not yet returned, and full bilateral service is expected to resume July 1

Deputy FM Gharibabadi and Oman's Abdulaziz Al-Hinai held the inaugural session of the bilateral governance body, exchanging views on coastal-state sovereign rights and the strait's future management, separate from the concurrent US-Iran Doha track

After two days of exchanges in which IRGC drones struck four US Gulf bases and Washington hit Iranian coastal radar and missile sites, both sides stopped firing Monday morning; Trump said Iran 'requested talks'; Iran's Deputy FM Gharibabadi said Doha talks were 'not confirmed'

Naim Qassem called the US-brokered Trilateral Framework 'humiliating, shameful and a surrender of sovereignty,' Hezbollah supporters blocked Beirut's airport road, and Israeli drone strikes killed one person in south Lebanon on June 28, two days after Lebanon and Israel signed the deal.

Iran's Statistical Center released June data on June 27 showing households paid 88.6% more than a year ago for the same goods, with rural inflation above 108% and food prices up 134.6%, as the conflict with the US and Israel compounds pre-existing sanctions pressure.

PM al-Zaidi called it 'the first phase' at a June 29 cabinet session; confessions from ex-Deputy Oil Minister Jumaili triggered the sweep, which one named target had been sanctioned by the US Treasury for routing Iraqi oil to Iran

Iran's IRGC launched coordinated strikes on the Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait and the US Fifth Fleet facilities in Bahrain early June 28 in retaliation for US attacks on five Iranian coastal sites; Tehran threatened to halt all diplomatic processes if Washington keeps striking

Iranian Deputy FM Gharibabadi announces two days of indirect Qatari-Pakistani-mediated talks have ended with 'positive progress' on Hormuz and $6 billion in assets; next round after July 9

A 1-1 draw with Iran in Seattle sealed Egypt's historic Round of 32 place; Khalilzadeh rifled in a 93rd-minute winner but VAR ruled him narrowly offside, keeping Egypt's five-point tally intact

Iran's Foreign Ministry called June 26 US strikes on coastal radar and missile sites a breach of the June 17 Islamabad memorandum; the IRGC denied any deconfliction channel exists; Qatar confirmed Al Udeid was hit, making it the fourth Gulf base struck in the June 27 response

The group's +188,000 bpd July hike brings cumulative increases since April above 600,000 bpd; Iranian exports and US-Iran Hormuz talks are driving the steepest oil price decline of 2026

At 08:00 UTC on June 27, an unidentified projectile hit the 300,866-tonne crude carrier Kiku, laden with 2 million barrels of oil; the crew escaped injury but the bridge sustained damage, and the UK maritime agency upgraded the waterway's threat rating within hours

With Saturday's clearances, 23 of the 26 South Korean-linked ships stranded since February have exited the strait; HMM Namu is undergoing hull repairs in Dubai after taking an Iranian missile hit; 43 Korean seafarers remain in the zone

US special envoys traveled to Qatar on July 1 to advance the June 17 Islamabad MoU with Qatari PM Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman; Trump had claimed a July 1 US-Iran meeting, Iran denied it, and Qatar confirmed no direct session was planned

Amir Ghalenoei called US treatment 'really terrible' after his squad was again barred from overnighting in the host country; some logistics staff lack US visas; Iran drew 1-1 with Egypt with a late goal cancelled by VAR and awaits round-of-32 qualification

Hours after Washington's June 26 retaliation strikes on Iran's missile and radar sites, the IRGC targeted the 5th Fleet base in Manama and a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the US-Iran MoU to the edge of collapse

The UN's maritime agency counted roughly 80 explosives in the Traffic Separation Scheme; two alternative corridors have formed, one US-coordinated along Oman's coast, one Iran-controlled closer to the Iranian shore

Ambassadors Leiter and Hamadeh signed the Trilateral Framework at the State Department on June 26, launching two IDF withdrawal pilot zones and a Military Coordination Group; Hezbollah was not a party and threatened civil war over implementation

The International Maritime Organization halted plans to evacuate 11,000 stranded sailors from the Strait of Hormuz after the M/V Ever Lovely was hit while following the IMO's southern route; Iran explicitly declared the corridor unauthorized and warned it would target non-compliant ships

Urea dropped by half from its April peak as Hormuz reopens, but USDA projects input costs elevated through 2027; farmers who cut nitrogen this spring will lose yields this fall

The benchmark settles below $70 and flips its curve structure for the first time since before the strait closed

A day after Oman and the IMO opened a fee-free transit route, Iran's Guards call it 'unacceptable' and demand mandatory coordination on Channel 16

Crude had fallen 40% from its wartime peak by June 25, then a projectile hit an Evergreen container ship in Hormuz and war-risk premiums snapped back

The three-day mission to UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain surfaced a private fear: that Washington's rapprochement with Tehran could normalise a rival the Gulf has spent decades containing

In a White House meeting on June 25, Trump publicly blamed NATO allies for not joining the Iran war; Secretary General Rutte defended members by noting Europe hosted 4,000-5,000 US aircraft

Iran's second Supreme Leader from 1989 to 2026, Khamenei commanded the IRGC, Iran's nuclear program, and regional proxy networks until his death in US-Israeli airstrikes on 28 February 2026.

A 35-year dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh that ended in Azerbaijan's 2023 military takeover, now in a stalled US-brokered peace process as of mid-2026.

The North Sea crude benchmark used to price roughly 80% of globally traded oil, underpinning government budgets, inflation, and energy security calculations worldwide.

Eight simultaneous large-scale wars across Ukraine, the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia are driving displacement, energy shocks, and geopolitical realignment.

The 45th and 47th President of the United States, Trump is the only modern leader to win non-consecutive terms; his second administration, which began January 20, 2025, has restructured US trade, executive authority, and military posture at a pace that has reshaped the international order.

The process that raises uranium's fissile U-235 concentration for reactor fuel or weapons, a dual-use chokepoint central to the Iran nuclear standoff and Russia-West fuel decoupling.

GPS jamming blinds navigation receivers while spoofing fakes their position; deployed by Russia, Iran, North Korea, and India, the attacks now threaten global aviation, shipping, and weapons guidance.

Finite inventories of air-defence interceptor missiles, depleted by the 2025 Iran-Israel war, face a multi-year US, Israeli, and NATO rebuild against accelerating demand.

Iran routes roughly 1.5 million barrels of crude per day through a shadow fleet and front-company network to circumvent US and EU sanctions that have been in place since the 1990s.

The interlocking US, UN, and EU sanctions regimes imposed on Iran since 1979 are the primary mechanism constraining Iran's oil revenues, nuclear program, and weapons procurement, shaping Middle East geopolitics and global energy markets.

Israel's permanent armed confrontation with Lebanon-based Hezbollah, Iran's best-funded proxy force, is the Middle East's most persistent driver of regional escalation and civilian displacement.

Iran's ninth president since July 2024, a reformist cardiac surgeon who co-signed the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum ceasefire framework with the US, operating within Supreme Leader authority in Tehran.

The UAE's third president since May 2022, MBZ built Abu Dhabi into the Gulf's most interventionist power, balancing US alliance, AI investment, and shifting stances on Iran.

China's largest state-owned arms and ordnance conglomerate, under US sanctions since 2003, whose 31% revenue fall in 2024 exposed the limits of Beijing's weapons-export ambitions.

The Vienna-based cartel of 22 oil-producing nations that coordinates roughly 59% of global crude supply, setting production quotas that move world oil prices.

The SCO is a Eurasian intergovernmental bloc of ten nations anchored by China and Russia, covering roughly 40 percent of the world's population and operating a counter-terrorism coordination structure.

Iran's HESA-designed kamikaze drone, rebranded Geran-2 by Russia, is the defining attrition weapon of the Ukraine war and the most proliferated loitering munition beyond the US and China.

The narrow channel between Iran and Oman's Musandam Peninsula is the world's single most critical oil shipping chokepoint, carrying roughly 20 million barrels per day, and its security status in 2026 became the defining variable in global energy markets.

A structural vulnerability in personalist autocracies globally: concentrated power leaves no organic succession mechanism, generating crises when leaders die, fall ill, or are forcibly removed.

Yemen's civil war, running since 2014, pits Houthi rebels against a Saudi-led coalition across a country with more than 23 million people in humanitarian need.

A 99-year US development lease over the Zangezur strip moves from framework to implementation, rewiring South Caucasus transit and alarming Tehran and Moscow

Ankara condemns the strikes as illegal, mourns Khamenei, and offers Trump support to implement a ceasefire, with two-thirds of Turks wanting Turkey to stay out

Rolling blackouts and reservoirs near 5% collide with a sixth drought year, as Pezeshkian warns the capital could run dry and even floats evacuation

The Gulf's most hawkish leader flies to Cairo to welcome the US-Iran deal and the strait's reopening, after demanding hard terms on Iran's missiles and nuclear program

The Pentagon gets $67bn, including $21bn in munitions replenishment; $11bn goes to US farmers and $1.4bn to the Ebola response in central Africa

A projectile hit the Ever Lovely's bridge at 14:10 UTC on June 25; US Central Command struck Iranian missile and radar sites in retaliation on June 26, Trump called it a "foolish violation" of the ceasefire MoU, and the IRGC denied involvement

Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on Ali Al Salem airbase in Kuwait and the 5th Fleet's Port Salman in Bahrain on Sunday, the sharpest escalation since the Islamabad MoU; air defenses intercepted most projectiles and no deaths were reported, but Tehran warned of a 'complete halt' to negotiations

Four Republican defectors passed a War Powers Act resolution; it has no force of law but is the first bipartisan Senate rebuke of the Iran campaign

Switzerland talks produced a 'roadmap', and opposite public accounts of what Iran committed to on nuclear access

General License X resumes Iranian crude exports with banking, insurance and shipping cover after the Hormuz reopening

Grossi says the MoU guarantees access, Tehran says inspections follow only a final deal; the 60-day ceasefire window is burning

The agency chief plays down the clock on inspections as Washington and Tehran send conflicting signals about what the June 17 deal requires

Brent peaked near $118 in March; post-ceasefire normalisation has it at $75.57 by June 24, but a 500-vessel queue and the Qatar LNG explosion keep markets unsettled

The US Secretary of State concluded visits to UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain defending the US-Iran MoU; Gulf partners offered public solidarity while privately questioning enforcement

Qassem calls the disarmament drive a 'roadmap to annihilate' as Israel vows an open-ended stay in south Lebanon and keeps striking past the ceasefire deadline

Burgenstock talks June 22 conclude with a 60-day road map, Hormuz deconfliction cell and IAEA-inspectors-back agreement; Trump threatens US tolls if no final deal by August 22

The benchmark hits its lowest since February as shipping recovers; the 9 June STEO had Brent averaging $105 in June–July on a closed strait, a forecast the 17 June ceasefire upended in days

Treasury names front companies relabelling Iranian LPG as Omani to move millions of barrels to South and East Asia

Trump insists 'no $300 billion payment to Iran by the US'; Vance says Arab states and investors will fund it, and no country has confirmed a cent as Iran's own bank warns of a 12-year rebuild

A state dinner on the G7 margins becomes the unexpected venue for an initial war-ending agreement

With a US–Iran framework deal, Berlin readies the Bundeswehr, under three conditions

Three months of quiet on commercial vessels is a 'structured pause under tension,' not a truce; the group says it will resume and could close the strait if the US-Iran war restarts

Eight months on, the IAEA still cannot verify 440 kg of 60% HEU stored at Isfahan; Tehran says it has not resumed enrichment

With safeguards 'legally untenable' since February and inspectors locked out, the IAEA Board declares Iran non-compliant on 12 June, the agency can no longer verify the stockpile

Iran's president defends US talks and warns of economic ruin, but a new supreme leader and an IRGC-shaped parliament constrain what he can concede

An October election looming, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich demand Hezbollah's destruction while opposition brands the US-Iran deal Netanyahu's failure

An Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs triggers ~30 Iranian ballistic missiles at Israel, the first direct exchange since April, before both pull back 'for now'

The president orders international access restored after one of the longest shutdowns on record; hardline outlets say he had no authority, exposing the rift inside the system

The US fired well over 100 THAAD interceptors in the Iran war, draining up to a third of a costly, slow-to-replace arsenal

4,335 Geran-type drones launched in April; Alabuga output tops 5,500/month as jet variants outrun Ukraine's defences

Emboldened by its wartime shipping blockade, Tehran signals it could charge tech firms tolls, or disrupt traffic, on cables that feed the Gulf's AI boom

After 500+ Iranian ballistic missiles, Tamir interceptor production shifts partly to a US plant supplying both armies

Sudani sidelined, Maliki vetoed under US pressure: parliament approves Ali al-Zaidi with a partial cabinet, defence and interior still vacant

Jam-proof tethered drones have killed at least ten Israeli soldiers since April; Israel has no electronic counter

The WSJ says Mirage 2000 jets hit a Gulf island refinery, making the UAE the only third country to attack Iran, after Tehran fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Emirati targets

Iran's first hereditary succession installs a mid-ranking cleric the Guards pushed through; a third of the Assembly never signed on

Operation Epic Fury burned through PAC-3 missiles faster than two years of production can replace

A US deal could permit Saudi enrichment while a new defence pact with Pakistan reopens old proliferation fears