The US Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 on July 29 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, the widest dissent since 2005; markets read the split as a hawkish signal, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,100 points, the Nasdaq 100 dropped into correction territory 11% below its June high, and US borrowing costs hit their highest since 2007; South China Morning Post reported rotation into US-listed Chinese stocks as investors pulled back from US equities

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on July 14 that the consumer price index rose 3.5% year-on-year in June 2026, cooling more than expected after a run-up linked to the Iran war's energy shock; falling gasoline prices drove the miss versus the 3.8% consensus, though many household costs stayed elevated.

Five of the largest US banks reported second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 14, with investors watching for evidence of consumer resilience, credit quality, and the US interest rate outlook amid revived trading and dealmaking activity; JPMorgan Chase consensus EPS had been estimated at US$5.67 with revenue expected at US$50.5 billion, and the financial sector entered the reporting day with a bullish chart formation

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics June payroll report missed the 115,000 consensus by 58,000, while leisure and hospitality shed 61,000 jobs and the labour force participation rate fell to its lowest since early 2021, complicating the US Federal Reserve's next rate decision

The Japanese yen hit 162.27 per dollar in early Tokyo trading on June 30, its weakest since 1986 and past the 161.95 level at which Japan intervened in July 2024; Finance Minister Katayama repeated a warning of "decisive action" co-ordinated with the US Treasury

Iranian Deputy FM Gharibabadi announces two days of indirect Qatari-Pakistani-mediated talks have ended with 'positive progress' on Hormuz and $6 billion in assets; next round after July 9

The US central bank sets interest rates for the US economy, making its rate decisions the most watched monetary-policy signal in global financial markets.

Japan's national currency, issued by the Bank of Japan, is the world's third most traded currency and the primary vehicle for carry trades that destabilize Asian markets when unwound.

Switzerland's central bank holds one of the world's largest balance sheets relative to GDP, managing a safe-haven currency whose appreciation it has spent decades fighting.

US government debt securities issued by the US Department of the Treasury, the world's largest sovereign bond market and the global benchmark for risk-free borrowing costs.

A hawkish Warsh Fed flips the 2025 hedge thesis; metals and crypto sell off together

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released May personal income and outlays data on June 25 showing core PCE inflation at 3.4% year-on-year, the highest reading in nearly three years, with headline PCE at 4.1%; markets are now pricing a 65% probability of a Fed rate hike by September.

Tokyo headline CPI rose to 1.7% in June, the first reacceleration in eight months, but the yen stayed pinned at multi-decade lows as markets weigh BoJ hike expectations against a Federal Reserve that is no longer cutting

The Fed's preferred price gauge accelerated for the third month running, with AI-driven memory and chip costs now visible in consumer price data

New chair Kevin Warsh holds at 3.5–3.75% but 9 of 18 officials project at least one hike by year-end as Iran-war energy inflation pushes CPI to 4.2%