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Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, begun February 24, 2022, is the largest armed conflict in Europe since 1945 and the defining fault line between Russia and the Western alliance.

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Ukrainian drones struck the Slavneft-Yanos oil refinery in Yaroslavl on the night of August 5-6, 2026, setting fires at one of Russia's five largest fuel processing plants located more than 700 kilometres from Ukraine's border; Zelensky confirmed the operation, saying the refineries fund Russia's war; a second refinery in Bashkortostan and a Wildberries logistics warehouse in Tver were also struck; Yaroslavl governor Mikhail Evraev announced traffic restrictions and described it as the largest-ever drone attack on the region; drones were also tracked heading toward Moscow
How Wars Actually End ·27 takes ·Aug 8
Russia launched a combined barrage of ballistic missiles and drones at Kyiv and surrounding Kyiv Oblast overnight on August 4-5, killing at least 17 people and wounding 44; Ukraine's air defences failed to intercept any of the ballistic missiles, and officials warned of critical shortfalls in Patriot-compatible interceptors as fires burned across the capital and its suburbs
How Wars Actually End ·24 takes ·Aug 8
Black Sea milling wheat fell to US$225.5 per tonne FOB for September shipments on August 6, 2026, its lowest level since June 2025, even as Ukraine's deep-strike campaign drove Russian refining to a two-decade low and attacks on both sides closed grain ports intermittently; analysts cited weak global import demand as the dominant downward price pressure; Ukraine's export corridors remained partially open despite ongoing attacks on port infrastructure
What Broke ·3 takes ·Aug 7
A drone fitted with what police described as an 'explosive device' was found on the tarmac near a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane at Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport overnight on August 5; a DHL cargo aircraft hit an unknown object as it climbed away from the airport; the south runway was closed, several flights were diverted, and Saxony state police took over the investigation
What Broke ·26 takes ·Aug 7
Russian forces struck the Ukrainian city of Sumy with guided aerial bombs overnight on August 3-4, killing two children and a woman and destroying civilian infrastructure, according to Ukraine's Sumy region governor; in the same period, a Ukrainian drone killed one person near Belgorod in Russia's border region, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian-annexed Crimea and a Black Sea resort collectively killed at least 11, according to an earlier RTÉ report
How Life Changes ·12 takes ·Aug 5
Russian crude oil refining averaged 3.6 million barrels per day in July 2026, the lowest since May 2002, Bloomberg data showed via Meduza; Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries and tankers drove the drop; at the same time Russia's federal budget deficit exceeded its full-year legal ceiling in just six months, large companies began cutting investment despite Putin's calls for a spending surge, and monthly company closures tripled to 12-15 thousand
What Broke ·9 takes ·Aug 7
Ukrainian drones struck a Wildberries logistics center in Russia's Vladimir Oblast on August 3 and attacked warehouses in Moscow and Leningrad regions overnight August 4, killing five and injuring six in Moscow Oblast; the strikes bring to 20 the total Wildberries facilities hit since Ukraine launched the campaign on July 18; Kyiv says the sites supply sanctioned drone components, a claim Meduza found partially but not conclusively supported by available evidence
How Wars Actually End ·8 takes ·Aug 6
A Ukrainian drone came down on a crowded beach at the Russian resort village of Arkhipo-Osipovka, near Gelendzhik on the Black Sea coast of Krasnodar Krai, on August 3, killing seven people including three children and injuring about 58; Russia blamed Ukraine; Ukraine said Russian air defenses shot the drone down and that 'it was Putin who killed those people'; CNN's video analysis found automatic gunfire from three weapons audible before the drone veered and dived into the sand; independent Russian exile outlet Meduza found the attribution 'genuinely unresolved'
What They're Not Saying ·19 takes ·Aug 5
Ukrainian drone strikes hit the Black Sea resort city of Gelendjik and Russia-occupied Crimea on August 3, killing 11 and wounding dozens, Russian officials said; Russia struck civilian infrastructure in Ukraine's Sumy city with guided aerial bombs the following morning, killing two children and a woman; a separate Russian strike on Mykolaiv killed one more woman
How Wars Actually End ·7 takes ·Aug 5
Ukrainian forces hit the Engels strategic air base in Saratov Oblast overnight August 1-2, Ukraine's General Staff confirmed; drones also struck a Saratov Oblast refinery and the 17th Wildberries warehouse of the war; Russia responded on August 2 with ballistic missiles on Kyiv; Russia fired a record number of missiles at Ukraine in all of July, per AFP analysis
How Wars Actually End ·29 takes ·Aug 5
A homemade bomb detonated near the Balzi Rossi Italian restaurant on Kudrinskaya Square in Moscow on the evening of August 1, killing at least five people by August 2, including the woman believed to have carried the device and a security guard who had stopped her from entering; Meduza reported the bomb was intended for a birthday celebration, suggesting the carrier may have been an unwitting courier; Russia's Anti-Terrorism Committee is investigating; no group has claimed responsibility
What Broke ·22 takes ·Aug 4
Russia launched 30 ballistic missiles at Kyiv on August 1, killing at least ten people including a police officer on duty and injuring at least 28 across five districts; Ukraine's air defences intercepted some, but officials said Patriot-compatible interceptors are running low and urged urgent allied resupply; the attack came less than 48 hours after a separate major Russian strike on Ukraine
How Wars Actually End ·27 takes ·Aug 2
Russian forces launched a mass aerial attack on Ukraine overnight July 31, deploying 255 Shahed-type attack drones across the country, the Ukrainian Air Force said; the attacks killed 9 people and wounded 48 over the preceding day as Ukraine continued to reel from the July 30 mass missile and drone barrage; President Volodymyr Zelensky renewed his plea for faster Western air-defense deliveries, saying 'untimely assistance and delays in the delivery of anti-ballistic missiles lead to this kind of destruction'
How Wars Actually End ·10 takes ·Aug 1
A Russian strike on Kyiv on July 26 destroyed the Kyiv facility of Terminal Autonomy, a US company producing AI-guided AQ-400 Scythe and AQ-100 Bayonet deep-strike drones; The Guardian confirmed the attack on July 31 via a source close to the company, and Kyiv Post reported the strike was carried out with a missile; it is the first time Russia has directly targeted a US-owned drone manufacturer operating in Ukraine
How Wars Actually End ·13 takes ·Aug 1
Russia launched its largest overnight barrage in weeks on July 30, killing at least ten civilians and wounding more than 50 across Ukraine; a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile crossed into eastern Poland, a NATO member, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed it likely crashed there, triggering notifications to NATO allies and a fresh Zelenskyy push for accelerated Western air-defence deliveries
How Wars Actually End ·32 takes ·Aug 1
Ukrainian drones struck Wildberries logistics warehouses in four separate Russian regions on July 30, the third multi-warehouse day of attacks since Ukraine began targeting Russia's largest online marketplace on July 18; the Leningrad Region governor said about 1,500 sellers lost their inventory in the warehouse fire there; Wildberries declared the drone campaign force majeure; Foreign Policy described the strikes as a deliberate campaign to collapse Russia's civilian logistics backbone
How Wars Actually End ·15 takes ·Aug 4
Ukrainian drones attacked Wildberries logistics warehouses in Ryazan on July 29, causing a large fire and partial building collapse; at least 3 people were killed across Russia and annexed Crimea in overnight Ukrainian strikes on industrial sites; President Zelensky said his military struck several industrial targets; Wildberries said Ryazan warehouse operations were disrupted
How Wars Actually End ·13 takes ·Jul 30
Ukrainian forces repelled a record 226 Russian combat clashes across all frontline axes on July 29, with 32 Russian soldiers killed near Pokrovsk alone; Russia launched 6,125 kamikaze drones and 190 guided aerial bombs in a single 24-hour period; Russian forces advanced toward Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast, fighting in Sumy, Kharkov, Dobropolye, Gulyaypole and Zaporozhye; Zelensky warned partners that 30,000 more North Korean troops are being prepared for deployment and said a massive Russian strike was imminent
How Wars Actually End ·12 takes ·Jul 30
Ukraine's Security Service launched a drone strike on the Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez refinery in Perm on July 29, hitting a key crude-processing unit more than 1,500 km from the Ukrainian border; the operation was ordered by President Zelensky to degrade Russia's military and economic capacity; Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez is one of Russia's largest refineries and a significant contributor to refined fuel for Russian industry and the military
How Wars Actually End ·11 takes ·Jul 30
Ukraine locked in co-production negotiations with Lockheed Martin on July 28, the second US defense contractor engaged in a week after Raytheon, while Poland's Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz proposed siting the production factory in Poland as a geographically safer option; Boeing separately declined to transfer the homing-head license to third countries, a restriction first reported by Germany's Die Welt; analysts say 24-to-30-month component lead times mean no Ukrainian-made PAC-3 MSE interceptors before late 2028
How Wars Actually End ·9 takes ·Jul 30
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Washington on July 28 for a meeting with US President Donald Trump at 9:30am ET, his latest attempt to win firmer US support against Russia; the visit comes as Ukraine and Russia both escalate long-range strikes and US-led diplomatic talks remain at a standstill, with the US Senate due to vote the same day on Russian sanctions
How Wars Actually End ·20 takes ·Jul 29
A Russian missile struck the Kyiv production facility of Terminal Autonomy, a US-owned company that manufactures AI-guided AQ-400 Scythe and AQ-100 Bayonet strike drones designed to resist Russian jamming; Kyiv Post and reporting citing The Guardian described the July 31 attack as Russia's first direct hit on a factory belonging to an American defence company operating in Ukraine
The Quiet Shift ·12 takes ·Aug 1
A Ukrainian drone hit a civilian passenger bus on a scheduled route in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, on July 28, injuring 19 people, acting Governor Alexander Shuvaev confirmed; separately, over 390 drones targeted the Moscow region overnight, with 81 intercepted approaching the city and the rest neutralized by air defence, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said
How Wars Actually End ·14 takes ·Jul 29
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in the UK on July 27 for the first face-to-face meeting with new British Prime Minister Andy Burnham at a Royal Navy base; Burnham announced the UK would share the intellectual property of its Stone Cloak electronic jammers, which can interfere with Russian air-defense radar, with Ukraine, and both leaders stressed air defense, maritime security and joint defense production as priority areas
The Long Game ·10 takes ·Jul 31
A Russian missile violated Polish airspace and landed in a field in eastern Poland's Lublin region before dawn on July 30, during a mass Russian barrage on Ukraine; NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte condemned the airspace violation and said the alliance would 'defend its territory'; Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said there was 'no reason to think Poland was targeted'; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky blamed 'insufficient or delayed' air defense supplies for deaths in Ukraine during the same barrage
What Broke ·29 takes ·Aug 3
Russia's President Vladimir Putin told Russian Navy officers on July 26 that he was 'confident' Ukraine would 'sooner or later' lose its western territories, which he described as lands Stalin gifted to Soviet Ukraine after WWII; Poland's Foreign Ministry called it 'cynical' disinformation designed to split Warsaw from Kyiv; Hungary and Romania, also named, have not responded
How Wars Actually End ·13 takes ·Jul 29
Ukraine struck oil facilities in Russia's Udmurt Republic, 1,400 km from the front line, and in Yaroslavl Oblast on July 27, with Udmurt Governor Alexander Brechalov describing it as 'the most massive attack in recent times'; President Zelensky also confirmed strikes on an oil export terminal in Russia's Rostov region; a separate overnight drone hit an apartment block in Rostov-on-Don, killing two people and injuring eight
How Wars Actually End ·16 takes ·Jul 29
Russia launched 147 drones at Ukraine overnight July 26-27, with Ukrainian air defense intercepting 145; Russian attacks killed at least 7 civilians and injured 58 in Ukraine, including at a Kryvyi Rih hypermarket; Ukrainian counterstrikes killed at least 5 people in southern Russia; President Zelensky warned that Russia is preparing a new mobilization wave, with losses exceeding recruitment
How Wars Actually End ·31 takes ·Jul 29
Ukraine launched what Meduza described as one of its biggest strikes on Russia in 2026, sending 571 drones against 15 regions overnight on July 24; Flamingo cruise missiles struck the AVITEK plant in Kirov, Russia's only serial maker of fighter ejection seats and a supplier of Tor air-defense and Kh-101 cruise missile components, killing 6 and wounding 26; Wildberries warehouses near St. Petersburg were hit for at least the fifth time in a week, as Russia officially called the e-commerce strikes terrorist attacks while Ukrainian defense analysts documented FPV drones and attack-drone components listed for sale on the platform
How Wars Actually End ·15 takes ·Jul 27
An LPG tanker, the Gas Lisbon under Liberian flag, was attacked and exploded approximately 30 km from the Romanian port of Sulina outside Romanian territorial waters on the night of July 20 to 21 while sailing from Egypt to Ukraine; three crew members were wounded, and Romanian President Nicusor Dan called the strike 'most likely' a Russian attack and launched a probe
How Wars Actually End ·4 takes ·Jul 22
Ukraine launched more than 400 drones toward Moscow and surrounding cities overnight on July 20; Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said air defenses shot down 385 of them; Ukraine's armed forces also struck an oil storage facility and logistics sites in Moscow Oblast and hit six vessels in the Black Sea; Russia struck Zaporizhzhia residential buildings and a dry cargo ship in Odessa in parallel
How Wars Actually End ·33 takes ·Jul 21
Ukrainian forces struck fuel storage facilities in Russia's Stavropol Krai and hit three shadow fleet vessels in the Black Sea on July 19; Russia's TASS reported fires in an industrial zone near Stavropol with no casualties, while President Volodymyr Zelensky said the strikes were a direct response to Russia's heaviest ballistic missile barrage on Kyiv
How Wars Actually End ·7 takes ·Jul 20
Russia launched 41 missiles of various types at Ukraine's capital overnight July 18-19, hitting several districts in what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called one of the biggest ballistic missile barrages of the war; at least one person was killed and 17 others were wounded, with Ukraine's air defences under strain from a Patriot munitions shortage
How Wars Actually End ·12 takes ·Jul 20
Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces extended their shadow-fleet drone campaign from the Sea of Azov into the Black Sea on July 15, hitting 20 Russian vessels including 17 oil tankers, according to Kyiv Independent; commander Robert 'Madyar' Brovdi declared 'the first round of the maritime battle is over' and announced the next phase, after 105 Russian ships were struck in the Azov over nine days in Operation MoLoChKa
How Wars Actually End ·14 takes ·Jul 16
European Union member state ambassadors on July 15 agreed to extend temporary protection rights for Ukrainians fleeing the war until March 2028 but excluded military-age men arriving after the decision; the restriction was requested by Kyiv itself, yet Hungary and France led opposition inside the EU, while the Council of Europe's human rights commissioner warned that blanket exclusion without individual case reviews would be discriminatory
Who Decides ·18 takes ·Jul 16
France held its July 14 national day parade with troops and warplanes from partner countries across Europe, and Ukrainian soldiers marching alongside them; French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at what Macron described as his tenth and last Bastille Day parade as president, with a record nearly 6,700 troops, 98 aircraft, 31 helicopters, and 315 vehicles on the traditional route from the Arc de Triomphe to the Place de la Concorde
How Wars Actually End ·15 takes ·Jul 15
Ukrainian drones struck the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat petrochemical plant in Russia's Bashkortostan republic and the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai overnight July 13-14, setting both sites ablaze; Ukraine's Special Operations Forces confirmed the Bashkortostan hit in what APA called the last major Russian refinery to remain undamaged in 2026.
How Wars Actually End ·15 takes ·Jul 16
Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) hit the Syzran oil refinery in Russia's Samara Oblast overnight on July 11-12, setting the Rosneft facility ablaze around 800 km from the front line; the strike damaged the ELOU-AVT-5 crude distillation unit and drove Russian gasoline output to roughly 65% of summer demand; the same strike wave hit 10 tankers and four ferries in the Sea of Azov; Ukraine's General Staff confirmed the operations
What Broke ·8 takes ·Jul 13
Ukraine's military claimed 21 oil tankers, four tugboats, two dry cargo vessels and one specialized vessel were struck by drones in the Sea of Azov overnight on July 10-11, recording 73 hits; Russia halted commercial navigation through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Canal in response; Russian authorities separately confirmed four vessels hit in Taganrog Bay including a methanol tanker, with one sailor killed; Russia's air defenses claimed to have downed 178 Ukrainian drones overnight
How Wars Actually End ·41 takes ·Jul 13
State-compelled military service, reinvigorated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine since 2022, is expanding across ten EU states and Taiwan, reshaping NATO force-generation and global defence budgets.
·4 takes ·Jul 3
Russia-led post-Soviet military alliance of six states formed in 2002 and headquartered in Moscow, losing coherence as Armenia defects and Russia's Ukraine war strains collective commitments.
·3 takes ·Jul 3
Russia's president since 1999, Vladimir Putin is directing the full-scale war in Ukraine, commanding the world's largest nuclear arsenal, and managing a wartime economy under an ICC arrest warrant.
·4 takes ·Jul 3

The briefing, by email